2005-11-17 - World Cup Qualifying Places
It pains me to say it but already there's
stories about confederations demanding more places at the World Cup. I
must say that I will not be happy if the current system is adjusted
once more. Rather than adjusting the places that confederations
currently get, I feel very strongly that the system must be changed
altogether. Here's the situation for the 2006 World Cup:
- AFC: 4 automatic + 1 playoff opportunity
- CAF: 5
- CONCACAF: 3 automatic + 1 playoff opportunity
- CONMEBOL: 4 automatic + 1 playoff opportunity
- OCEANIA: 0 automatic + 1 playoff opportunity
- UEFA: 13 (14 including hosts Germany)
What I'd like to see instead is a system whereby each confederation's
number of automatic places is reduced but that each confederations is
given several qualifying places for a 'World qualifying' playoff system
depending on some known factors, perhaps the FIFA ranking, but in any
case something that can't be argued about in a subjective manner. Any
system must be objective and determine the best countries in the
playoff system, and not just the best countries per continent. For
example, and this is only an example because there must first be some
official rules how the places are determined:
- AFC: 3 automatic, 2 playoff places
- CAF: 4 automatic, 2 playoff places
- CONCACAF: 2 automatic, 3 playoff places
- CONMEBOL: 3 automatic, 3 playoff places
- OCEANIA: 0 automatic, 1 playoff place (assuming Australia stay in AFC)
- UEFA: 11 automatic, 5 playoff places
That would mean 24 automatic qualifiers (including the hosts) and leave
8 places for the 16 countries that would qualify for the playoffs.
Perhaps the playoffs could be played as four groups of four teams, with
the top two in each group qualifying for the finals. The groups would
need to be objectively determined so as to award places to teams that
have a better 'ranking' (given whatever the rules are, perhaps just the
FIFA ranking) than others.
You may ask where the time would come from to play such a 'playoff'
tournament. Well, for a start the qualifiers could begin 7 or 8 months
before the current qualifiers begin. That would kill two birds with one
stone because rather than 'friendly' matches being played between
January-August before the current World Cup qualifiers start, we'd
replace them with competitive ones. Club managers would have nothing to
complain about because all matches would be competitive! 
Another solution would of course be to make sure that continental
championships act as qualification tournaments for the World Cup, much
like the system adopted this time for the African Nations Cup. Rather
than playing two qualification tournaments, one qualification
tournament is used for both. Although that may not work in Europe as it
would mean qualifiers would be known two years before the tournament
starts, you could always change the qualifying system in the same way
as the World Cup qualifying proposed here, i.e. a smaller number of
teams qualifying automatically and then a smaller (overall)
qualification tournament for a larger number of 'playoff' contenders.
Or how about making the World Cup happen every three years!?!?!? That
way you could have continental championships played the year before,
and have a 'rest' year after the World Cup. To me that seems like the
perfect solution!
Anyway, enough about this for the time being, I just hope in the
meantime there's not another war with peoples' personal opinions coming
into it. We must have objective ways that make the decisions without
subjectivity coming into it!
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2005-11-06 - International Friendlies
There's not much happening in international
fooball at present, with most nations concentrating on domestic
affairs. There's of course been a flurry of activity in those nations
not involved in the playoffs to try and set up friendly matches to test
their squads. There's already some interesting-looking encounters
between the top nations in the world, namely: England v Argentina,
France v Germany, Netherlands v Italy and Portugal v Croatia.
Unfortunately I think once again the tasty-looking matches will
probably be ruined by league managers. There's been the usual
contention over whether players from top teams should be playing in
'meaningless' friendly matches all over the world. To those managers I
say:
"Stop bickering like little schoolchildren! If you really want to do
something about it then do this via the organisations in place that can
affect these situations, like the G14 and players' unions. The only
reason these friendlies ARE meaningless is due to your constant
interference in them in the first place! Putting pressure on
international managers such that top players only play one half is
depriving the fans of international football. For those clubs that this
affects, surely there's enough money in the game of football to sort
something out! If you have a problem about your players playing in
'meaningless' friendly matches, why don't you complain just as much
about having to play the weakest teams in your league? The real problem
here is that teams in the leagues of England and Spain play way too
many matches, and by cutting the leagues down to 18 teams or less and
getting rid of meaningless cup competitions (like England's League Cup)
you'll free up enough time for your players to recover from any
injuries that they obtain at international level!"
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2005-10-24 - 2006 World Cup Qualifying - CONCACAF/Asia Playoff
With three weeks to go until the playoff
matches begin, there's quite a storm brewing in the Caribbean. No, it's
not hurricane Wilma, but rather the the ill feeling between Trinidad
and Tobago and Jamaica.
Bahrain has managed to arrange a
training camp in Jamaica and will even play a warmup against their
national team. As you can imagine the Trinidad and Tobago FA is not
best pleased with this arrangement as it will obviously help Bahrain.
Apparently both Guatemala and Costa Rica turned Bahrain down when they
requested to play some warm-up matches, the former showing solidarity
with Trinidad and Tobago in turning Bahrain down. If this was also the
case for Costa Rica it would seem most admirable. Panama has apparently
also accepted an offer to play a friendly match in Bahrain later this
month. I wonder if something like this could happen in Europe or other
parts of the World?
With no designated FIFA international
match dates between the last qualification matches in October and the
playoff matches in November, it seemed like neither team would be able
to arrange any friendly matches to practice for the playoff. Indeed, it
would be extremely difficult for any national team to get players
released for matches not played on the FIFA-designated dates (i.e.
France v Costa Rica on November 9th!). However, the Qatar FA has
apparently showed solidarity with their Arabian 'neighbours' and
allowed the Bahraini players playing for it's teams to join their team
in Jamaica well before the FIFA rules stipulate that they must be
released (i.e. 5 days prior to an international match). Furthermore,
not only does Bahrain now have these advantages, they of course also
have the advantage that they'll play the second leg at home. As a
result they have the chance to set up camp in the Caribbean well before
the playoff matches, something that the Trinidad and Tobago team won't
be able to do. At best they could arrange a match with an Arabian
country before the playoffs but it would seem an impossible task for
them to get a team together that plays all across the world. It would
also be unlikely that such a match could take place on the Arabian
peninsula as they'd have to travel back to the Caribbean before the
playoff match.
The Jamaican FA will undoubtedly be paid quite
well for this arrangement, and since they missed out on the financially
lucrative final round of CONCACAF qualification, they probably couldn't
resist accepting the Bahraini offer. If a similar financial incentive
was offered to Guatemala and Costa Rica, it makes their position even
more admirable, even if they probably made quite a bit of money from
the final round of the CONCACAF qualification. I don't think Jamaica
can be blamed for this especially as they apparently need the money,
but it does seem a strange decision not to help their Caribbean
'neighbours'. There have apparently already been some threats from
Trinidad and Tobago in Jamaica's direction, and I wonder what the
future implications of the Jamaican decision will be. I think we can
definately expect some spicy encounters between the nations if they do
meet in the near future, especially if Trinidad and Tobago manage to
once again miss out on World Cup qualification.
Just as they
learned in the past to arrange final group matches to be played at the
same time, I think in the future FIFA would be prudent to arrange such
matches such that both teams have an opportunity to play warmup matches
before their playoff matches as this definately doesn't seem fair.
Although Bahrain aren't doing anything wrong, they do seem to have
managed to gain themselves an advantage by financial means. They've
already been rather lucky in the playoff with Uzbekistan so perhaps
fate is telling us that Bahrain will qualify. I suppose time will tell
whether it will all pay off for them, both literally and figuratively!
Ultimately of course whichever team qualifies, they're likely to be
'also-rans' at the finals in Germany next year, but whatever happens
the hurricane season in the Caribbean may well be extended into next
year!
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2005-10-18 - Top 15 versus Top 15
Following last week's blog entry that
looked at Germany's record versus the countries in the top 15 of the
FIFA ranking, I thought I'd look at all other such countries to see how
they performed. Here's the resulting table (sorted by percentage of
available points taken) taking into account matches played between the
current top 15 countries in the FIFA ranking since 01/01/2000:
Team P W D L GF GA GDIF PTS %
1 France 22 14 4 4 40 19 +21 46 69.7
2 Italy 21 10 7 4 23 17 +6 37 58.7
3 Netherlands 30 13 13 4 40 26 +14 52 57.8
4 Brazil 28 12 8 8 43 32 +11 44 52.4
5 Czech Republic 20 9 4 7 33 25 +8 31 51.7
6 Spain 16 7 3 6 20 18 +2 24 50.0
7 Portugal 24 9 8 7 35 35 0 35 48.6
8 Argentina 20 7 7 6 24 25 -1 28 46.7
9 Sweden 22 5 14 3 26 24 +2 29 43.9
10 England 30 8 11 11 38 33 +5 35 38.9
11 United States 23 8 2 13 24 25 -1 26 37.7
12 Denmark 23 6 7 10 22 33 -11 25 36.2
13 Mexico 29 7 7 15 18 42 -24 28 32.2
14 Germany 26 6 5 15 34 50 -16 23 29.5
15 Turkey 20 2 8 10 16 32 -16 14 23.3
You can also view all the matches.
Given the current FIFA rankings
it's no surprise to see the Netherlands or Brazil so high up this
table, or to see England and Germany so far down given their recent
form, but I was surprised to see Italy so high given they are 13th in
the latest FIFA rankings. Of course, some of their more dubious
performances have come against teams that were ranked lower than them.
Although not totally representative as all countries haven't played
each other the same number of times, it is nonetheless rather
interesting. Even though France tops the table by quite some way in
percentage terms, the Netherlands have lost the lowest percentage of
matches, and would it not be for the incredible 13 draws, they'd head
the table if they had managed 6 wins from those 13 draws. Similarly,
Sweden's record would be equally impressive had they not played so many
draws. Will it be these teams that have the best records against the
top 15 in the past five years be the countries that end up challenging
for the World Cup in 8 months time? Time can only tell.
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2005-10-11 - RSS Feed - Latest Results
If you are interested in receiving the latest international results, fixtures and news in RSS form, point your RSS aggregator at: http://www.rdasilva.demon.co.uk/ifr_latest.xml. Please use a logical download frequency such as daily or longer so as not to load the site too much. Many thanks!
At some stage I'll create separate feeds for results, fixtures and general news items.
I'd be interested in hearing about your experiences or any comments you may have, so please send me an email.
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2005-10-07 - 2006 World Cup Qualifying - European Playoffs
According to the latest news it seems teams will be ranked according to their FIFA ranking
when it comes to the playoff draw that will take place on 14 October.
The three teams with the highest FIFA ranking for September will be
seeded and will each play a team that isn't seeded. This means that if
teams such as England and Spain enter the playoffs they'll have a big
advantage. Although I sort of agree with this, it seems extraordinary
to introduce this rule at this stage. Surely such a rule should have
been set at the beginning of the qualifying competition! Reading this
news certainly makes me annoyed as this is the first time that this has
happened with the playoffs. In the past the draw has always been made
in a random manner, and officials have always stated that these draws
should give everyone a fair chance. Call me a cynic but surely this is
purely because England and Spain are in danger at this stage of missing
out for the World Cup. I guess the commercial aspects of football are
once again coming out. Surely the World Cup is about finding the 'best'
32 nations, or rather the best nations from each continent (given the
flawed qualifying system...). If England were to have been drawn
against Spain, surely this is because they weren't good enough to
qualify from their respective groups! Do they deserve any further help
to make them qualify? If you're English or Spanish maybe, but ... Both
nations were already, in my opinion, in relatively easy qualifying
groups! Thankfully they've at least retained the home and away draw,
perhaps still giving the advantage to the lower ranked team if they
play the second match at home...
Although in principle I'd like to see the best teams at the World Cup
(and not just the best teams from each continent), I'd like to see both
England and Spain miss out through the qualifiers to see what the
reaction will be. Will there be another rule change to give them
another chance??? 
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2005-09-06 - 2006 World Cup Qualifying - September 7
Although all upcoming qualifying matches
are important as we're nearing the end of the qualifying, there are
four matches that really stand out this Wednesday:
- Group 2:
Ukraine v Turkey. As Ukraine has already qualified and may still be in
a relaxed and celebratery mood, Turkey may well benefit and get all
three points that they so desperately need. If they do win and win
their final match away to Albania they'll set a mean target that only
the Greeks would be able to beat, and then only if they won their
remaining three matches that includes a visit to Denmark. Ukraine and
Turkey have only met three times before, twice in friendlies in Turkey
(3-2 in 1996 and 0-0 in 2003) and once in a World Cup qualifier last
year. In the last match, Ukraine were comfortable 3-0 away winners, but
this time it's only the Turks that have something to play for, so I
expect them to prevail 1-2.
- Group 3:
Russia v Portugal. Both sides will be eager to win with Russia needing
a win to stay in touch with their group opponents. Portugal needs a win
to ensure they qualify at least for the playoffs. Portugal have the
upper hand in matches between the two nations with the Russians (as the
Soviet Union) can only count one win from the six previous meetings.
Indeed the last encounter last year was a virtual walkover with the
Portuguese winning 7-1. I think the Portuguese determination and their
free-scoring nature will be too much for the Russians so I'd predict a
0-2 here.
- Group 4:
Ireland v France. Surely the sequence of nine draws between the top
sides in this group must be beaten at some stage and this could be the
match where it finally happens. Both sides will take a giant step
towards qualification with a win and I reckon given the clash of styles
between the teams this will be the factor that finally breaks the
sequence. With some of their influential players back in the team I
think France will have too much for the Irish to shade the match 0-2,
even if history shows that more often than not the home side wins
between these two nations.
- Group 7:
Spain v Serbia and Montenegro. So far Spain have struggled to score in
group seven and Serbia and Montenegro haven't allowed any of their
opponents to score against them. If this trend continues Spain will be
condemned to the playoffs where they risk failing to reach the finals
for the first time in eight attempts. Spain will be under a great deal
of pressure in this game and the longer time goes on in this match
without them scoring the more likely their opponents are likely to take
advantage on the break. A draw would suit the Serbia and Montenegro
team and would make it hard for the Spanish to top the group. I think
the pressure of the occasion, which Spain rarely find themselves under
in qualifying competitions, and the expectancy of the Spanish
supporters might just be the deciding factor so I'd predict a 0-0 draw
just like the last encounter between the two sides at the end of March.
In other matches Italy will be looking to get their campaign back on
track away to Belarus, but it might be tougher than most people would
think. Belarus ran them very close last time when the Italians only
managed to shade the match 4-3. Sweden should win in Hungary to keep
the pressure on Croatia but they need to have their 'A' game with them
to beat Lothar Matheus' side. Slovakia will go to Latvia and should be
full of confidence following their impressive friendly win against
Germany on Saturday. Latvia will want be determined to keep their slim
hopes for a playoff place alive following a disastrous defeat to their
Baltic neighbours Estonia on Saturday. England should be too good for
Northern Ireland but the Irish have nothing to lose so they may prove
more difficult to beat than on paper. Scotland will be ready for Norway
following their impressive display against Italy on Saturday but with
Norway playing at home this may be the end for the Scots' dream to make
the finals. Poland will need to keep their impressive scoring record
alive to beat Wales and to keep the pressure on the English. If they do
they should be too strong for the Welsh. Even the seemingly
inconspicuous match between Liechtenstein and Luxembourg may have some
significance. If Luxembourg manage to upset their opponents and manage
to win one more of their remaining qualifying matches, it could mean
that results against Luxembourg instead of those against Liechtenstein
will be used to determine who qualifies as one of the two best
runners-up. All that is unlikely though, Luxembourg having lost all
nine of their qualifying matches so far that included a 0-4 turn-around
by Liechtenstein in Luxembourg last year.
Other important matches will take place in the CONCACAF zone
where Costa Rica could go six points clear of their challengers if they
beat Trinidad and Tobago at home and Guatemala lose to the United
States. This may however be Guatemala's best chance to upset the
Americans who qualified for the finals at the weekend. The Americans
will need to keep winning to keep their impressive FIFA ranking
that could yet see them nominated as one of the eight seeds for the
finals. History predicts a win for the Ticos, Trinidad and Tobago
having only won once in their previous 10 meetings. The story is
similar for the Guatemalans who can only look back to four friendly
match wins in the 70's and 80's after which they managed only three
draws in 11 subsequent matches to date. I'd predict a 2-0 win for Costa
Rica and a narrow 1-0 victory for the U.S.
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2005-08-22 - Another New Maradona
Ortega, Aimar ... and now Messi. Apparently he: "won the World Youth Cup practically single handed", but which hand did he use? 
If it's true I can't wait to see him play. If not then maybe we need to
wait for the real one to be reincarnated much like what happens to the
Dalai Lama. Mind you, I somehow think the real one will live forever in
one way or another.
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2005-08-21 - World Class
Turn on any TV football program these days and you'll hear some
commentator call someone 'World Class'. For me that phrase is heavily
over-used. How can you call someone a World Class player when they
haven't played at a world stage? Surely that's an insult to players who
have! To me there are very few world class players around, and even
fewer who are still playing. To me that phrase should be reserved for
the elite of the game who have proven themselves. (In no particular
order, and ones that I've witnessed myself or seen a lot of...) Diego
Maradona, Pele, Platini, Cruyff, etc. These players were truly world
class and in my mind deserve such a tag. To hear the same tag given to
players like Wayne Rooney, Arjen Robben or even David Beckham is to me
very wrong. Sure, they have shown that they have the potential to
become world class players and they've given the fans some great
performances, but world class? Maybe in the future they could be
considered as such. To call them World Class at this stage is like
saying that Tampa Bay Lightning (the current Stanley Cup holders) are
'World Champions'. Surely you have to invite teams from a set of
countries around the world to be able to call yourself a World
Champion!?!? In any case, that debate is for another blog. 
So what makes a player world class? Well, in my mind a player would
need to have a whole bunch of things going for him, the more the better:
- A
player who has played and proved themselves at a major tournaments such
as the World Cup, the European Championship and/or the European
Cup/Champions League and preferably at every one of the tournaments
that they played in. A player who has excelled at one or preferably two
or more of the world's top leagues, i.e. the Scudetto, la Liga and the
Premiership. The more of these the more likely such a player can truly
be considered great. There are many occasions where a player has a
blinder of a tournament but only the true greats have great tournaments
all the time. Toto Schillaci comes to mind. At Italia 1990 he was a
revelation, but should he be considered world class? Sorry Toto, but I
think not. The same goes for players who have a brilliant season in one
of those leagues, or even two. Unless a player has regularly mixed with
the world's best and stood out above all others, how can he be judged
alongside them?
- A player who has actually won
something in a major competition, be it a cup or a medal for second or
third and made a major contribution(s).
- A player who
stands out from his team mates on regular occasions and without whom
the team would possibly not even have got to the stages that that team
has reached. When they don't play in their team they are truly missed.
- A player who has regularly played at a higher level than others throughout their career and who rarely drops below that level.
- A
player who has many different and wide-ranging skills. They're not just
good at free kicks or passing or scoring goals. They should have skills
that are above average in all departments.
If those
were the 'rules', it would be very difficult for any young player such
as Rooney (19) or Robben (21) to be considered world class. To me they
haven't graduated yet to a level where their 'World Class'ness can be
considered. They need to mix with the best players in football and rise
above them. Whether they will is the real test.
To me there's
only a handful of true world class players in the game at present.
Zidane, Ronaldo and Maldini. They have shown at all different levels
that they have what it takes to be considered great. When they take to
the pitch they stand out, and of course they're proven winners. I think
it's typical that there's so few as the 'rules' that I've listed almost
suggest that such a player would be very unlikely to be considered
world class until their career is over or near an end. For those
players who recently retired, Ruud Gullit, Jurgen Klinsmann, Roberto
Baggio and George Weah come to mind as good examples.
In
conclusion, I'm really saying that the phrase 'World Class' should be
reserved for a selected few. Such players would make it into the hall of fame.
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2005-08-21 - To play or not to play, that is the question
In England this week, there's been a lot of
debate whether their friendly against Denmark should ever have taken
place. It was of course a terrible result for them but even before a
ball was kicked many were asking the question why such a game was
arranged at this time. Premier League managers were complaining as
usual but you can't ignore the fact that in less than two weeks
there'll be series of World Cup qualifying matches that will go a long
way to deciding who will qualify. In the end the result probably did
the English team a lot more good than a win or draw would have done.
Wales will probably be at the other end of a drumming by an angry
England team wanting to put things right but England beating their old
enemy Wales may not be a foregone conclusion. How England would have
fared against Wales without having played a match since end of May and
not tried anything with those players that are now at the top of their
game would have been interesting to see. A negative result would
probably mean questions being asked such as: "Why didn't England
play a friendly in August to test themselves before the Wales game?"
The answer to this is of course that with hindsight you can make the
right decisions, but without it you can only but try your best to do
what you think is right. In England's case the only issue was that
should be debated is how they went about their game. They were punished
for not taking it seriously enough. How much they were punished will
become clear in the near future. I
think too many people are looking at these matches as a waste of time
but I think whatever the result you'll learn something. How much you
learn is up to the skill of the manager involved, how the players
respond to him and the situation. Of course the opposition should be
worthwhile, and in Denmark the English couldn't complain. Perhaps
it's the pressure that the Premier League managers are under, or the
manner of the British press, but it seems that most of these
reservations come from the British Isles. Judging by England's recent
performances in major championships, perhaps this is why they have
consitently underachieved. One
thing that hasn't been talked about but should also be considered is
the FIFA ranking. Although it's not clear how much this influences the
choosing of World Cup seeds, it is clear that the ranking is definately
considered. Therefore it follows that teams should be taking any
international matches seriously. However little friendly games affect
the ranking, it could still mean the difference between being
seeded amongst the first seeds in the World Cup or
amongst the second. Imagine England being seeded amongst the
second seeds because of this result, and being drawn in the same group
as Brazil. Although they could of course still top their group in this
case, the chances would be smaller than if they were chosen as a first
seed and being drawn against a team like Mexico. Finishing second in
their World Cup group these days would of course mean having to play
against a group winner in the second round! In
conclusion, if such matches are going to be arranged, and in my opinion
they should be, they should of course be taken seriously. It's from
these matches that you test and learn from your players. The players
will of course have the chance to test themselves against the top
players from other nations. Although it would be difficult to prove or
measure, I can't imagine, unless adequate preparations aren't made,
that playing such matches can't only be beneficial in the long term.
Even Marco van Basten admitted that he learned a great deal from the
match against Germany. He admitted his mistake having changed the way
his team played during the game. Given the number of matches that the
international manager gets these days to achieve success, surely they
should be given a reasonable chance to give the international fans what
they crave.
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About Me
This weblog will list the latest interesting issues in international football to do with tournaments and results in general.
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