2007-11-21 - 2008 European Championship Seedings
A night of farce (Netherlands / Germany) and a night of unbelievable excitement (England/Croatia/Russia), these are the seedings for the European Championships now that the 16 qualifiers are known:
Pot 1:
1. Netherlands - 2.42
11. Greece - 2.17
20. Switzerland* - 1.80
27. Austria* - 1.50
Pot 2:
2. Croatia - 2.41
3. Italy - 2.36
4. Czech Republic - 2.33
5. Sweden - 2.27
Pot 3:
6. Romania - 2.25
7. Germany - 2.25
8. Portugal - 2.19
9. Spain - 2.18
Pot 4:
12. Poland - 2.17
13. France - 2.09
14. Turkey - 1.96
15. Russia - 1.96
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2007-11-21 - well |
| Posted by Adrian |
the Netherlands and Germany fulfilled my expectations, the Germans heard the result from Minsk and decided to play for a draw... I didn't see neither of the matches, cause i watched Romania play Albania and the fabulous Wembley game, could someone comment on those games please, how did the Netherlands play (Germany as well) ?
P.S. Croatia was unbelievable!!!!!! |
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2007-11-21 - as for possible groups |
| Posted by Adrian |
compare these possible groups:
Netherlands
Italy
Germany
France
with
Austria
Sweden
Romania
Russia
no offense intended for the teams mentioned in the last group, my team is also there :) |
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2007-11-21 - Re: well |
| Posted by rdasilva |
| Hi Adrian, I haven't seen Germany's match yet but I read they weren't that good but that Wales was. That seems to me the reports were correct, in other words, they played for the draw. The Netherlands played a decent first half and created many chances. They certainly didn't look like they were playing to lose. Their pattern of play wasn't much different from any of the other games they had played. In the second half Belarus was pretty good, and played on the break. The Dutch defence made two mistakes and two goals fell. It could even have been worse. The Netherlands had a couple of good chances late on and scored from one of them. I think we'll be kicking ourselves if we end up 10th in Europe when the FIFA ranking is drawn up on Friday, meaning we'll be in the second group of seeds for the World Cup draw on Sunday. With Croatia winning in England and Portugal drawing at home against Finland I think we might just barely hold onto 9th place in Europe in the FIFA rankings. Frankly that's all I care about. Following England's lacklustre performance I'm actually happy even though my team lost badly tonight! |
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2007-11-22 - Re: re: well |
| Posted by rdasilva |
| OK, I've now seen highlights of the Germany match as well and there's definately no reason to fine or kick either Germany or Netherlands out of the tournament for bringing the game into disrepute. The Germans had a couple of good chances and even hit the post. They'd be very good to do that without wanting to score. Its not much different to what Russia did at the end of the Andorra game when they knew England had lost, i.e. playing out the game. Its shame of course, and we'll see the damage on Friday when the FIFA rankings come out. Neither team did themselves much good when you think about the Euro 2012 qualification draw. Mind you, none of the European teams are really that strong now. Greece have the best coefficient for this qualification campaign, and England are 17th and Portugal is in 16th place. The Netherlands will need to have a good World Cup qualifiying campaign to increase their UEFA coefficient again as they're currently in 10th place on goal average behind Sweden. |
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2007-11-22 - ok, so the two games weren't "hollywood movies" |
| Posted by Adrian |
if my fellow countryman edgar is right and i believe he is ( he's doing a very nice job with the fifa rankings ) , the netherlands will remain in the first pot for 2010, but England!!! will be out , in favor of greece... so double loss for England after tonight
here is his page...
http://lucrurineinteresante.blogspot.com/2007/11/2010-wcq-quick-look-at-pots-ii.html |
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2007-11-22 - rankings |
| Posted by Anonymous |
| Just clicked on that link, the rankings haven't been updated to include tonights games .... England still quoted in Pot 1 :-( |
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2007-11-22 - re |
| Posted by Adrian |
| the other columns are for the results in case of win draw lost for tonights games... you can figure out the order of england greece romania and croatia if you look closer... |
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2007-11-22 - rankings |
| Posted by Anonymous |
Thanks, I didn't pay enough attention!
Fantastic, just a pity my beloved Scotland can't draw the English. Wanted to draw a top seed that was a banker 6 points ;-)
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2007-11-22 - Need verification |
| Posted by Anonymous |
Form a french source, Portugal is in pot 2 with 2.38 instead of 2.19. I guess they are wrong, the heading say "chapeaux probales" just want to be sure, if someone can check that please,
Thanks |
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2007-11-22 - and the link is |
| Posted by Anonymous |
| http://lequipe.fr/Football/breves2007/20071122_014525Dev.html |
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2007-11-22 - Re: Need verification |
| Posted by rdasilva |
| It is really very simple. Take their record in the 2006 World Cup qualifying (30pts from 12 matches) and add it to their 2008 European Championship qualifying record (27pts from 14 matches) = 57 points from 26 matches. Divide 57 by 26 = 2.19230769231 or 2.19. So L'Equipe or their source are very wrong. |
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2007-11-22 - Re: ok, so the two games weren't "hollywood movies" |
| Posted by rdasilva |
Well, I think the Netherlands can count themselves very lucky if this is correct.
If the calculations are correct we should have the following (for UEFA) come tomorrow's FIFA ranking publication:
1 Italy 1537 -> 1498
2 Spain 1309 -> 1349
3 Germany 1321 -> 1296
4 Czech Republic 1250 -> 1290
5 France 1251 -> 1243
6 Portugal 1258 -> 1241
7 Netherlands 1217 -> 1170
8 Croatia 1054 -> 1129
9 Greece 1065 -> 1114
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10 England 1151 -> 1113
11 Romania 1055 -> 1088
Wow, the English will be kicking themselves (or McClaren) this morning. One point??? |
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2007-11-22 - bye bye McClaren |
| Posted by +385 |
| http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lfK2OIqfsoY&feature=bz301 |
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2007-11-22 - calculations wrong... |
| Posted by SwedeinFrance |
Excellent links, good job everyone!
However, the calculations are not totally accurate. I only ran a check for England to see what their new ranking points will be. The new values will be the following:
year-4) average:579.46 20%:115.89
year-3) average:605.86 30%:181.76
year-2) average:778.98 50%:389.49
year-1) average:433.73 100%:433.73
Total:1120.87
So Englands new ranking points will be 1121 (if they round up) and not 1113. However, I didn't check what Greece's new points will be. I'll leave it up to FIFA to do that and I'll let them surprise me tomorrow.
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2007-11-23 - my calculations wrong |
| Posted by SwedeinFrance |
| I guess I must have been wrong. The list is out and England are 10th on 1113pts. |
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2007-11-23 - The mistake |
| Posted by SwedeinFrance |
Aaaah, now I see. I forgot to take into account the friendly England played last week versus Austria. Without that game England would have had a ranking of 1021. But that game (even if England won the game) didn't give England more points than their average, so it actually decreased their ranking points. This is what I dislike about the FIFA ranking system! Friendlies affect the ranking too much. In Englands case I guess they will be beating themselves. The poor fellows fell down to pot 2 in the WC qualifying draw because of a friendly that they won...
But on the other hand I don't think that teams that don't qualify for the EURO deserve to be in pot 1. (No offense to all the Englishmen out there. I'm part English myself and would have loved to see them in Switzerland/Austria next year.) |
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2007-11-23 - told you |
| Posted by Adrian |
| england are out of the top 9... |
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2007-11-23 - England |
| Posted by Anonymous |
They've got all they deserved from playing a meaningless friendly before a vital qualifier. Thought they'd already be through me thinks and trying to cash in ..... losing Michael Owen in the process!
Leave the rankings to the experts please, had me worried. |
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2007-11-23 - Re: The mistake |
| Posted by rdasilva |
I don't really agree with your statement that friendlies affect the ranking too much. Friendlies are worth 2.5 times less than qualifiers and I think that's absolutely right. I think what's wrong with friendlies is how certain countries are using them. We often see complete changes at half time, and that means that you're effectively playing with a B team most of the time. And do you then think that doing that should not affect your ranking? The FA's should know what they're playing with, and if they don't then that's their fault. The KNVB and DFB proved that they are up with the stats, so if the English FA isn't then we shouldn't be looking to find reasons for failures beyond them! Also don't forget that an average is an average. Most teams play friendlies when they don't have qualifiers so it's pretty much the same for everyone. In England's case it has been shown quite clearly that they're just not good enough. A mediocre Russia has beaten them to the qualification place, and they could easily have finished further down. The same goes for a lot of other countries, including my own, the Netherlands. Without luck they would have finished below Bulgaria, but thankfully we had some fortune that means we're still there.
Berwerkt door rdasilva aan 2007-11-23 bij 11:08 |
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2007-11-23 - Untitled Comment |
| Posted by Petrograd |
Interesting to see the seed's European ranking... Based on Fifa:
Pot 1: Netherlands (7), Greece (9), Switzerland (26), Austria (43)
Pot 2: Croatia (8), Italy (1), Czech Republic (4), Sweden (17)
Pot 3: Romania (11), Germany (3), Portugal (6), Spain (2)
Pot 4: Poland (16), France (5), Turkey (13), Russia (15)
And according to Eloratings:
Pot 1: Netherlands (4), Greece (11), Switzerland (13), Austria (29)
Pot 2: Croatia (9), Italy (1), Czech Republic (5), Sweden (15)
Pot 3: Romania (8), Germany (5), Portugal (10), Spain (3)
Pot 4: Poland (18), France (2), Turkey (12), Russia (16)
Either way it's obvious Pot1 is weaker than Pot2 AND Pot3. |
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2007-11-23 - Re: Untitled Comment |
| Posted by rdasilva |
| Hi Petrograd, I still don't think you should underestimate Greece and Switzerland. Greece's record in qualifying is the best in Europe, and although you could argue it was an easy group I don't think if you're in any other group that you can write them off as also-rans. Greece are free-scoring and have shown they have learned from their 1-4 defeat against Turkey. Switzerland's preparation also hasn't been too bad having beaten the Dutch and drawn with Argentina. Home advantage should also give them a boost which was already clear in the match against the Netherlands. I really don't think they're going to be easy to beat and we won't see how good they are until the first or second group game. And of course the Netherlands are still an unknown entity. The quality of their players certainly suggest that if they play as a team and find their scoring touch that they will be hard to beat. Even Austria might surprise as they have nothing to lose and have a home crowd behind them. They certainly have no pressure to perform because the Austrian public already know they're going to fail. Judging by the many defeats of the top teams in qualifying I really think this will be the most open and surprising tournament since 1984. |
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2007-11-23 - Untitled Comment |
| Posted by Petrograd |
Hehe, I agree that it will be open. I didn't mean to talk Greece (or Netherlands, or the home countries) down, if you follow Elorating's estimate of adding 100 rating to the home country, Switzerland would be ranked as high as 7th in Europe (equal with England!), and Austria would jump up to 24th, not far behind my own country.
I think it's interesting to note how much lower Austria and Switzerland are in Fifa's rating, I bet it's because they haven't been able to play any qualifiers of late.
That said, I'm sure most countries will hope to pull Sweden from Pot 2, just as they'll hope not to pull France from Pot 4 :P |
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2007-11-23 - Untitled Comment |
| Posted by Petrograd |
Biggest movers from the Euro seeding to the WC seeding:
(Showing all teams moving 7 places or more:)
Italy 10->1
Spain 13->2
Israel 27->18
Scotland 28->12
Finland 32->25
Northern Ireland 42->23
Moldova 44->31
(Greece 1->9)
Sweden 7->17
Switzerland 18->26
Latvia 26->40
Slovenia 29->39
Austria 31->43
Estonia 33->47
I note that both Austria and Switzerland are listed in the losers bracket. Another disadvantage of the Fifa ranking maybe. |
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2007-11-23 - Re: Untitled Comment |
| Posted by rdasilva |
Sorry Petrograd, I'm not really on your side today, but I think the fact that Austria and Switzerland are in the losing bracket is because the Euro ranking for the two is based on the 2006 World Cup qualifiers which finished over 2 years ago, and hence that isn't current with what is happening now, which is the case for the others. It is obvious to me that both are dropping in the FIFA ranking because they're losing points from their World Cup qualifying matches from 2004 and 2005, which are worth 2.5 times more than friendlies. In other words, the FIFA ranking is more accurate for Austria and Switzerland. That's why probably UEFA have said that they're reviewing the UEFA coefficient rankings. It's probably more fair to give a higher weighting to the last qualifying campaign rather than an equal weighting to both as currently happens.
Berwerkt door rdasilva aan 2007-11-23 bij 15:05 |
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2007-11-23 - Ranking |
| Posted by Johnny |
I agree FIFA rankings are more accurate for seeding the teams. After all, UEFA coefficients give equal value for defeating Germany and San Marino!
As for Eloratings, they include all games since 1882 (I think) and that's hardly relevant today. |
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2007-11-23 - Re: Ranking |
| Posted by rdasilva |
| Well, the ELO ratings start in 1872 because you have to start somewhere, and trust me that those figures aren't relevant in the rankings today. It's just that if you start in the middle you have to give every team a ranking that isn't based on anything, so it's better to start from the beginning if you have access to that data. In other words it makes the rankings at any date in history more accurate than they would be otherwise. |
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2007-11-24 - World Cup draw |
| Posted by Anonymous |
It strikes me as being extremely unfair that Switzerland and Austria have been placed in the pots they have been, for the World Cup qualifiers. I know Austria have been poor recently, but to nearly end up in the bottom pot (with the likes of San Marino) is going way too far.
As for Switzerland, who only failed to make the quarter-finals of the last WC because of a penalty shootout, to have them end up at the bottom of the pot 3 (and extremely close to pot 4) shows that the current UEFA system for the WC is blatantly unfair.
The only reason why they have ended up in the pots they have is because they haven’t played in any EURO qualifiers. Oh, bad Austria and Switzerland, they are only the hosts after all.
And to those that argue with the previous UEFA coefficient system and argue for a change… is beating San Marino the same as beating Germany? But let’s wait a minute, let’s assume Liverpool are playing Arsenal in week 1, and Derby County in week 2… assuming they beat both, should their points against Derby count for less because they have played a team ranked? And yes, if you say ‘San Marino’ was bottom of their group, so was Azerbaijan who took points of Finland.. who were in the qualifiers until the last minute of the whole competition. Which goes to show who is weak or strong in Europe is often becoming an SUBJECTIVE issue.
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