2007-11-17 - 2008 European Championship - Seedings for finals
Following this evening's crazy night of football, one thing is for sure. Joining Austria, Greece and Switzerland is either Netherlands or Germany. If Netherlands avoid defeat in Belarus, they will be a top seed, otherwise if Netherlands lose Germany will get that honor...
Here's the UEFA coefficients, of countries that have either qualified or still have a chance to qualify, that will determine the 2008 European Championship seedings:
1. Netherlands - 2.52 ***
2. Croatia - 2.38 ***
3. Germany - 2.36 ***
4. Italy - 2.33 ***
5. Czech Republic - 2.30 ***
6. England - 2.29
7. Portugal - 2.24
8. Sweden - 2.24
9. Romania - 2.22 ***
10. Poland - 2.22 ***
11. France - 2.14 ***
12. Spain - 2.14 ***
13. Greece ** - 2.13 ***
14. Turkey - 1.91
15. Russia - 1.91
16. Serbia - 1.91
17. Norway - 1.81
19. Switzerland* - 1.80 ***
25. Finland - 1.56
27. Austria* - 1.50 ***
28. Northern Ireland - 1.38
* Euro 2008 host (top seed)
** Euro 2004 winner (top seed)
*** already qualified
With the only two unbeaten countries before tonight having been beaten, i.e. Croatia and Romania, this is now the worst European qualification tournament (including World Cup qualification tournaments for Europe) since the qualifiying tournament of 1984. In modern day football, which I choose to be from 1978 for the purposes of making my point and because I can't be bothered searching for crapness any further back than that, no other European qualifying tournament has ever been played where all countries have been beaten at least once. Of course, in 1984 there were only 30 or so countries, and these days we have over 50. I think it clearly shows how the top countries are getting worse, and how much the also-rans are getting better! I think I'm seriously going to put some money on Austria to win Euro 2008 next year because it really is that close between the top nations now. Anyone can beat anyone else!
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Post A Comment!
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2007-11-17 - 'top' seed |
| Posted by Anonymous |
| The sad thing about becoming the top seed is that your put in the pot with 3 of the teams with the worst coefficients. Feels more like a punishment than a reward... |
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2007-11-18 - a question |
| Posted by Adrian |
what do you think the Netherlands should do...? lose the game or become seeds...? maybe germany will draw just to avoid that "honour", in case holland decides to lose the game :)
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2007-11-18 - Pot Prediction |
| Posted by Anonymous |
Having predicted results for Wednesday's games and then worked out their co-efficients, I tentatively suggest the following pots:
POT 1: Aus, Swi, Gre, Hol
POT 2: Ger, Ita, Cze, Eng
POT 3: Swe, Cro, Por, Rom
POT 4: Pol, Spa, Fra, Tur
Totally agree with the first poster regarding the 'punishment' of having the best co-efficient..the above is hypothetical, though given that Holland overcame the mighty luxembourg by the one goal, it wouldn't surprise me to see them slip to defeat v Belarus..accidentally on purpose :-) |
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2007-11-18 - Punishment |
| Posted by rdasilva |
It is indeed a punishment for this European Championship, that's been discussed before on this blog. If Marco van Basten or his staff is aware of the situation then I don't think they'll decide to lose the match, but what I do think is that they will lose the game because he can't get the best out of his players and he doesn't know how to get along with them. Continually sidelining Klaas Jan Huntelaar is a disgrace, and Koevermans and Kuijt who get chosen ahead of him are complete amateurs if you ask me. Anyway, it doesn't really matter, whatever group we get at the European Championships we'll go home after the first round because under Marco the team just plays disgracefully bad. Even Cyprus has scored more goals in this campaign!!! It's a shame the arrogance of van Basten will keep him in the job until after the European Championship. We need a new manager with some new impetus to get the best out of the players. The players themselves are some of the top in Europe so it should be a much better team than what they have shown... Anyway, I could go on... I do believe Germany have a lot more pride than the Netherlands so I don't see them drawing their final game under any circumstances whatsoever. The only positive is that there's still 7 months until the finals, but I don't hold out much hope. Van Basten keeps saying that the results are positive and that it's positive that we've qualified, but I think that not qualifying would be more positive for our team because then it would lead to widespread changes...
Berwerkt door rdasilva aan 2007-11-18 bij 11:07 |
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2007-11-18 - Qualifying Probabilities |
| Posted by roger64 |
Here are the qualifying probabalities after the saturday matches (based on Elo Ratings):
Only the groups where there's something to play for are mentioned.
A
Poland 100.00%
Portugal 92.98%
Finland 5.01%
Serbia 2.01%
B
Greece 100.00%
Turkey 86.65%
Norway 14.38%
E
Croatia 100.00%
England 84.83%
Russia 15.17%
F
Spain 100.00%
Sweden 99.92%
Northern Ireland 0.08%
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2007-11-18 - thank you |
| Posted by Leonardo Bertozzi |
| great information, had been searching for it for quite a while :) |
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2007-11-19 - Untitled Comment |
| Posted by SwedeinFrance |
The potential final coefficients of the teams still in the game are:
team - win - draw - lose
Sui - doesn't matter
Aut - doesn't matter
Gre - doesn't matter
Hol - 2.54 - 2.46 - 2.42
Cro - 2.41 - 2.32 - 2.27
Ger - 2.42 - 2.25 - 2.17
Ita - 2.36 - 2.27 - 2.23
Cze - 2.33 - 2.25 - 2.21
Eng - 2.32 - 2.23 - 2.18*
Por - 2.27 - 2.19 - **
Swe - 2.27 - 2.18 - 2.14*
Rom - 2.25 - 2.17 - 2.13
Pol - 2.25 - 2.17 - 2.13
Fra - 2.18 - 2.09 - 2.05
Esp - 2.18 - 2.09 - 2.05
Tur - 1.96 - 1.88* - 1.83*
Rus - 1.96* - ** - **
Ser - 2.00* - ** - **
Nor - 1.86* - ** - **
Fin - 1.62* - ** - **
Nir - 1.46* - ** - **
* = might not qualify with this result
** = will not qualify with this result
So basically, there is still a lot that can happen. Technically, Poland have the chance to climb from their current position in pot 4 up to pot 2 and Germany can end up in any pot.
Even though I expect that a majority of the teams will win, I think we'll see some last minute changes in the pots. |
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2007-11-20 - Untitled Comment |
| Posted by NP |
| Surely this proves that the competition is getting better, not worse? |
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2007-11-20 - Re: Untitled Comment |
| Posted by rdasilva |
| But competition getting better and top teams getting worse are two different things. Competition indeed gets better when you have a smaller difference between the top and bottom teams, but quality has gone down, and that's what I'm talking about. |
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