2007-10-18 - Euro 2008 Qualification - In their own hands...
Points needed to qualify, and what that means in terms of results (modified 'France' 24 October):
- 1 - Croatia (E) - draw Macedonia (A) (17/11) or draw England (A) (21/11)
- 1 - France (B) - draw Ukraine (A) (21/11)
- 1 - Sweden (F) - draw Spain (A) (17/11) or draw Latvia (H) (21/11)
- 2 - Netherlands (G) - win Luxembourg (H) (17/11) or draw Luxembourg and draw Belarus (A) (21/11)
- 3 - Italy (B) - win Scotland (A) (17/11) or draw Scotland and win Faroe Islands (H) (21/11)
- 3 - Norway (C) - win Turkey (H) (17/11)
- 3 - Poland (A) - win Belgium (H) (17/11)
- 3 - Scotland (B) - win Italy (H) (17/11)
- 3 - Spain (F) - win Sweden (H) (17/11) or win Northern Ireland (H) (21/11)
- 4 - Portugal (A) - win/draw Armenia (H) (17/11) and draw/win Finland (H) (21/11)
- 6 - Finland (A) - win Azerbaijan (H) (17/11) and win Portugal (A) (21/11)
- 6 - Russia (E) - win Israel (A) (17/11) and win Andorra (A) (21/11)
- 6 - Turkey (C) - win Norway (A) (17/11) and win Bosnia and Herzegovina (H) (21/11)
(H) = home
(A) = away
France will of course already qualify if Italy beat Scotland away on 17/11, and so will Croatia if Russia fail to beat Israel away. Spain and Sweden will also qualify if Denmark draw with Northern Ireland. And finally, the Netherlands will qualify if Bulgaria fail to beat Romania at home.
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2007-10-18 - Untitled Comment |
| Posted by Anonymous |
| I hope that Croatia and Russia will qualify to euro 2008. Croatia is the best in group,Russia show the heart,and poor England must change something. They must put them self on the ground and play game for game,and not look down on other representation. by |
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2007-10-18 - Untitled Comment |
| Posted by Druxy |
| I'm first time here,i like this web site. good job :-) |
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2007-10-18 - Re: Untitled Comment |
| Posted by rdasilva |
| The only downside of England missing the Euro Champs is that they'll learn from the experience. I'm the first one to cheer if England don't make it, but I also don't want them to realize the mistakes they make that have blinded them for so many years. If you compare the TV, radio, coverage you get in England to in other countries it's a joke. The English press tends to paint themselves a much rosier picture than it is in reality, and then when they lose they fall down like a house of cards. They're better off being somewhat more humble and less arrogant and realize that there's much more to the world of football than what happens in the premier league. Then their experiences can only be more positive if they do win. You cannot be considered World Class in my opinion if you don't win something at different levels. Beckham and Gascoigne did leave the English shores to get a more varied experience, but because of the crazy money in the English game many other players don't get that chance, and all they experience is their own style. The only reason they're now competing in Europe is due to the foreigners that play there (because of the money) and the foreign coaches. Name me a top English football manager! The top five teams from last season (and most seasons) are foreign-driven from management to the players. Anyway, I'm fast making this into a let's bash England blog so I better stop. I do tend to live by the principle of letting people hang themselves if they can't even listen to common sense... |
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2007-10-18 - Untitled Comment |
| Posted by Petrograd |
Regarding England I think it's funny they (as always with coaches) bashed Svennis a fair bit for only reaching quarter finals or whatever, and now suddently are facing being eliminated in the qualification. (Though I still think Russia will blow it against Israel, question is how England takes on Croatia at home as I see it.)
Regarding Spain - they need a victory against Sweden or a draw against Northern Ireland. They're safe with 2 more points (which also implies at least draw against Northern Ireland).
Croatia is closest to qualification. For them to fail to qualify, they must lose to Macedonia, lose to England by 2-0 or 3 goals or more, and Russia must defeat both Israel and Andorra. |
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2007-10-19 - My View of Russia vs England |
| Posted by Milivoj Milani, Croatia |
Well, I think it is time for English press to realize that big money doesn't matter in international football. England has players whose names are bigger than their performance.
In my opinion, England shouldn't try to adopt the short passing style football. The profile of the players are enforcing a more traditional English long ball style game. It's like trying to put your right shoe on your left foot, it simply hurts and it doesn't work. |
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2007-10-19 - Qualifying Probabilities |
| Posted by roger64 |
I recomputed the qualifying probs after last wednesday and here are the results. Keep in mind that Israel is in fact out, due to their England match results. I left out all the (other) countries that have been eliminated.
A
Portugal 94.91%
Poland 86.69%
Serbia 14.33%
Finland 4.07%
B
Italy 86.04%
France 92.55%
Scotland 21.41%
C
Greece 100.00%
Turkey 20.76%
Norway 79.24%
D
Germany 100.00%
Czech Republic 100.00%
E
Croatia 99.17%
England 44.18%
Russia 56.51%
Israel 0.14%
F
Sweden 98.87%
Spain 99.27%
Denmark 1.71%
Northern Ireland 0.15%
G
Romania 100.00%
Netherlands 99.99%
Bulgaria 0.01%
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2007-10-19 - Untitled Comment |
| Posted by Petrograd |
Ahh, there they are! I've been waiting impatiently :P Thanks a lot :)
Interesting to see how greatly Norway's chances have increased - from 33,86% at the first listing, to 79,24% now.
I also like how they show that England's fate is far from sealed, they still have a near 50% chance to make it.
I think Denmark's chances of qualification are, despite being low, overestimated due to their head-to-head records against Sweden and Spain, they'll lose any point-draw including either of those countries, which heavily cuts down on what results can help Denmark qualify, sadly.
Even if Sweden's chances have decreased, I'm far from worried about us getting there :P Northern Ireland-Denmark should be a very exciting game =)
Finally, Raoul, I don't think you need to worry about Netherlands :P |
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2007-10-20 - The Orange Disaster |
| Posted by roger64 |
| Well, Petrograd said the Dutch (which includes me) shouldn't worry too much. Although, statistically he's right, the level of play has been absolutely disastrous, as Raoul already pointed out before. Next year, we will have a lot of trouble making it through the group phase, no matter what the draw will be. After Euro 2008, Van Basten will move to Ajax (as the rumour goes; I wish them a lot of luck...), and we can start picking up our usual game, or whatever there's left of it. Having said that, we should be aware of the fact that Van Basten's predecessors Van Gaal and Advocaat were criticized heavily as well, although there used to be an occasional acceptable match, those days... |
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2007-10-20 - Untitled Comment |
| Posted by Petrograd |
Nods, I was only really talking about qualifications.
In the finals, Sweden will most likely again play decent in the group phase, and if they qualify for the next stage, get eliminated fairly fast.
Our current coach, Lagerbδck, has a good system he uses. He is very inflexible when it comes to adapting to your opponent though, which is why Sweden sometimes get caught doing whatever the opponents wants us to, like in the game against Northern Ireland, or previously against Trinidad & Tobago, etc.
I don't really mind though, as long as we qualify for the real tournament it's pretty cool. |
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2007-10-22 - Impressive |
| Posted by Anonymous |
Firstly, I would like to express my interest on this log. It's quite magnificient, like it alot :). Secondly, I like to comment on France chance of qualify. As you have staged France need to win against Ukraine to qualify, however, since Scotland just lost to Georgia, I figure that France only need to draw in Ukraine to qualify, regardless the outcome at Hampden Park b/w Scotland & Italy. Here are the 3 scenarios depending on the outcome of the Scotland vs Italy match which show France just need at least a draw to qualify.
A. Scotland wins
Standings for the top 3 would be (before the final group matches on 21/11)
1. Scotland 27 pts ----> Qualify
2. France 25 pts -----> Need at least a draw in Ukraine
3. Italy 23 pts ----> Need to beat Faroes and France to lose in Ukraine.
B. Draw
1. Scotland 25 pts ----> Qualify if either France or Italy to lose in their final fixtures.
2. France 25 pts ----> Need at least a draw to qualify
3. Italy 24 pts ---> Qualify with at least a draw with the Faroes
C. Italy wins
1. Italy 26 pts ------> Qualify
2. France 25 pts ----> Qualify
3. Scotland 24 pts -----> Eliminate
Mind you that UEFA take head to head record b/w the 2 or more nations that level on points. Thus, as far as the head to head record b/w France, Scotland & Italy (before the match at Hampden Park).
Scotland have a better H2H against France (Scotland won 1-0 both home & away). Thus if Scotland & France are level on points, Scotland will finish above France base on that H2H record.
Likewise, France have a better H2H against Italy (France won 3-1 @ home & draw 0-0 away). So France will finish ahead of Italy if both teams level on points (That would explain why France only need a draw to qualify in Scenario A up there)
Italy currently have a better H2H against Scotland (Italy won 2-0 @ home), however, it wouldnt mean much b/w the 2 nations since if 1 of the team are gonna win at Hampden Park and that team will qualify. It only makes thing interesting (that is H2H is taking into consideration to determine the qualification) if the result is a draw (which quite likely so), then Italy obviously will have better H2H record than Scotland. So that will take us to Scenario B up there, Italy will qualify with a draw with Faroes. However, if that's the case and France happen to lose in Ukraine then we will have (even more interesting) a 3 way ties....All 3 teams will finish at 25 pts. In that case, the H2H record b/w the 3 teams will take into account which will leave Scotland & Italy with a better H2H than France, so they will both qualify at the French expense. Here are the H2H of the 3 teams, provided Scotland & Italy would tie at Hampden Park.
1. Scotland 4 2 1 1 7 pts ----> Qualify
2. Italy 4 1 2 1 5 pts -----> Qualify
3. France 4 1 1 2 4 pts ------ Doh, eliminate
If that is the case then the French will kill themself with that 2 losses home & away to Scotland lolz. 1993 will come back to their memory once again, 2 losses to Israel & Bulgaria (both @ home) on their final 2 fixtures where they need just a draw on either match to qualify for USA 94, are still the France worst memory of qualification to date. Nonetheless, as this is the only way that 3 teams would level on points, I dont think this complicated scenarios would happen because Italy draw with Faroes @ home is quite impossible :).
Cheers, |
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2007-10-22 - Group B |
| Posted by Jungle Boy |
You're 100% correct, France only need a point in Ukraine to ensure qualification.
That was the most disappointing feature of our loss to Georgia, if we had at least got the draw, then a point from the Italy game would have meant France had to BEAT Ukraine ..... and I never thought France would do any better than a draw in Ukraine on a cold winter night at the end of November.
The big game that will decide the fate of this group is Scotland v Italy at Hampden on Nov 17th. I rate the outcome of this game as: Draw 55% Scotland Win 30% and Italy win 15%.
The draw is obviously the most likely outcome as Italy only need a point. As I've said in previous posts, I don't see Italy winning this one at all.
In a similar manner to Celtic at home in the Champions League, when Scotland play at home against teams even with better quality, with that amazing home support, the players seem to raise themselves to new heights.
I live in hope and I'm going for a 2-1 Scotland win. If not, the fans and our young team will dust ourselves down in preparation for the 2010 campaign. |
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2007-10-24 - Re: France |
| Posted by rdasilva |
| Indeed, they only need one point to qualify. I guess you shouldn't do maths at certain times of the day! ;-) |
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2007-10-30 - Spain and Norway |
| Posted by stevan |
As Petrograd has already pointed out 2007-10-18 :
"Regarding Spain - they need a victory against Sweden or a draw against Northern Ireland."
A draw against Northern Ireland will do as then Northern Ireland can only reach a maximum of 21 points and Denmark (even with two wins) can only reach a maximum of 23 points anyway. With only 1 point Spain (now 22 points) will already reach 23 points and towards Denmark Spain has the better H2H record.
Norway still has the match in Malta in Hand, so Norway can either win against Turkey or
Draw in Malta and draw gainst Turkey with 0:0 or 1:1 (because of the higher number of goals scored away from home in the H2H record) or
Win in Malta and draw against Turkey what ever score. |
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2007-11-03 - Untitled Comment |
| Posted by Petrograd |
I don't see how Finland has it in their own hands... if Poland defeats Belgium (24->27 points), Finland wins both their games (20->26 points), and Serbia wins both against Kazakstan and Poland (20->26 points), it doesn't matter if Portugal defeats Armenia or not, Poland would win the group, and Serbia would win the head-to-head record against Finland or Finland and Portugal.
That said I do hope Finland make it :P |
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