2007-10-03 - 2008 European Championship Qualifying - State of play
In just over a week and a half the penultimate set of matches will take place as a double-header on 13 and 17 October. The following is the current state of play for each of the groups. Amazingly 31 teams are still capable of taking a place at next year's final, meaning only 19 teams have so far been eliminated, and the situation might yet arise where no team has qualified until November when another double header is scheduled for 17 and 21 November.
Group A
- Can be eliminated:
- Serbia if they lose to Armenia and Azerbaijan (both away), and Portugal beat Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan (both away), and Poland beat Kazakhstan away.
- Belgium if they lose to Finland at home.
- Armenia if they don't beat Serbia at home and Belgium away, or if Finland avoid defeat against Belgium.
- Still in the race:
- Poland
- Finland
- Portugal
- Serbia
- Belgium
- Armenia.
Group B
- Can be eliminated:
- Ukraine if they don't beat Scotland away, and Italy beat Georgia at home.
- Still in the race:
- Scotland
- Italy
- France
- Ukraine
- Already eliminated:
- Lithuania
- Georgia
- Faroe Islands
Group C
- Can be eliminated:
- Bosnia and Herzegovina if they lose to Greece away, and Turkey beats Moldova away.
- Still in the race:
- Greece
- Turkey
- Norway
- Bosnia and Herzegovina
Group D
- Can qualify:
- Germany if they don't lose away to Ireland.
- The Czechs if Germany beats Ireland away, or if they beat Germany away.
- Can be eliminated:
- Ireland if they lose to Germany, or if they draw and the Czech Republic beats Germany away.
- Still in the race:
- Germany
- Czech Republic
- Ireland
- Wales
- Cyprus
Group E
- Can qualify:
- Croatia if they beat Israel at home and Russia fails to beat England at home.
- England if they beat Estonia at home, and Russia away.
- Can be eliminated:
- Russia if England beat Estonia at home and if Russia lose to England at home.
- Israel if they lose to Croatia and England win their two games.
- Still in the race:
- Croatia
- England
- Russia
- Israel
- Already eliminated:
- Macedonia
- Estonia
- Andorra
Group F
- Can qualify:
- Sweden if they beat Liechtenstein away and Northern Ireland at home, and Denmark lose to Spain or Latvia at home.
- Can be eliminated:
- Denmark if they lose to Spain and fail to beat Latvia at home.
- Still in the race:
- Sweden
- Spain
- Northern Ireland
- Denmark
- Already eliminated:
- Iceland
- Latvia
- Liechtenstein
Group G
- Can qualify:
- Romania if they beat Netherlands at home and Bulgaria lose to Albania away.
- Netherlands if they beat Romania away and Slovenia at home.
- Can be eliminated:
- Albania if they lose to Slovenia away or to Bulgaria at home.
- Still in the race:
- Romania
- Netherlands
- Bulgaria
- Albania
- Already eliminated:
- Slovenia
- Belarus
- Luxembourg
With reference to my tips, I think the only major doubts in my mind are what will happen in group B, where Scotland could split or lead the two World Cup finalists, group C where Norway could still surprise either Greece or Turkey and group E where Russia could yet eliminate England. But then football is a funny game. I wonder what the odds are for 'dark horses' Finland, Serbia, Ireland, Israel, Denmark, Northern Ireland or Bulgaria to qualify. I certainly wouldn't completely write any of them off, especially the latter who will still be hoping the Netherlands keep playing as badly as they are...
The ones with the most to lose and therefore most nerves look to be the World Cup finalists France and Italy, as well as England who are still needing to win every match they play. Although a draw away to Russia would keep them above their nearest rivals, they could still miss out if they lost their final game to Croatia, who admittedly would probably already have qualified at that stage and might not care too much about that game.
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Post A Comment!
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2007-10-03 - Untitled Comment |
| Posted by Petrograd |
Regarding which teams are already eliminated, and which teams can be eliminated the 13th, you can see specific details on
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2008_qualifying
, or it's subpages:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2008_qualifying_Group_A to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UEFA_Euro_2008_qualifying_Group_F .
If you take coming matches between leading teams into consideration you'll see that both Hungary and Malta are already eliminated for instance. (Considering you list 19 as eliminated, maybe you already knew that, but forgot to list it like that :P)
It's very interesting to see how the scenario's for a team's qualification or elimination change with time. |
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2007-10-04 - Untitled Comment |
| Posted by Petrograd |
Regarding Sweden's chances to qualify.. I think I've been fairly throughout, these are the scenario's I think work:
*Sweden defeats Liechtenstein and Northern Ireland and Denmark doesn't defeat both Spain and Latvia.
*Sweden defeats Liechtenstein and draws with Northern Ireland while Denmark loses to Latvia or draws with both Spain and Latvia.
*Sweden defeats Northern Ireland and draws with Liechtenstein while Denmark loses to either Spain or Latvia, or draws with both of them. |
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2007-10-04 - Re: Untitled Comment |
| Posted by rdasilva |
| Indeed, Malta is already eliminated because Norway and Turkey must still play each other, and that will mean that one or both with have more than 17 points, the maximum that Malta can get. Hungary is already eliminated because they can only reach a maximum of 18 points, at which stage they would be level at best with Turkey and Norway, who have both beaten Hungary home and away. The article has been modified. |
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2007-10-13 - Qualification Probabilities |
| Posted by roger64 |
Hi,
I used eloratings.net to generate match probabilities. I ran this 10,000 times and this is the outcome:
A
Portugal 83.68%
Poland 70.2%
Serbia 41.14%
Finland 4.92%
Belgium 0%
Armenia 0%
Kazakhstan 0%
Azerbaijan 0%
B
Italy 81.8%
France 77.02%
Scotland 39.88%
Ukraine 1.3%
Lithuania 0%
Georgia 0%
Faroe Islands 0%
C
Greece 94.04%
Turkey 72.06%
Norway 33.86%
Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.04%
Hungary 0%
Moldova 0%
Malta 0%
D
Germany 99.98%
Czech Republic 98.96%
Ireland 1.04%
Wales 0.02%
Slovakia 0%
Cyprus 0%
San Marino 0%
E
Croatia 96.5%
England 82.96%
Russia 17.34%
Israel 3.2%
Macedonia 0%
Estonia 0%
Andorra 0%
F
Sweden 98.1%
Spain 67,00%
Denmark 34.68%
Northern Ireland 0.22%
Iceland 0%
Latvia 0%
Liechtenstein 0%
G
Netherlands 99.52%
Romania 95.37%
Bulgaria 5.11%
Slovenia 0%
Belarus 0%
Albania 0%
Luxemburg 0%
Regards, Roger. |
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2007-10-13 - Untitled Comment |
| Posted by Petrograd |
| Ooo, nice statistics there. You should totally re-run them after the next couple of games :D At least after the 17th, preferily after the 13th too :P |
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2007-10-14 - New Qualifying Probabilities after Oct-13 |
| Posted by roger64 |
Here are the new qualifying probabilities after October 13. Comparing them against the previous once, it is obvious that Germany have qualified, and a couple of others are almost there. Spain for example have almost certainly qualified after beating Denmark at home. The same goes for Poland, thanks to Serbia that are almost certainly out. Well, check for yourselves...
(About the calculation: there are some potential flaws, since, for example, I'm not sure about the qualification rules if two teams end on equal points, is it goal difference or result between them? Well, it gives a good indication at least, although the significance of the numbers is less then two digits after the . as they suggest)
A
Portugal 93.97%
Poland 92.14%
Serbia 9.4%
Finland 4.49%
Belgium 0.00%
Armenia 0.00%
Kazakhstan 0.00%
Azerbaijan 0.00%
B
Italy 73.81%
France 70.05%
Scotland 56.14%
Ukraine 0.00%
Lithuania 0.00%
Georgia 0.00%
Faroe Islands 0.00%
C
Greece 99.41%
Turkey 55.23%
Norway 45.36%
Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.00%
Hungary 0.00%
Moldova 0.00%
Malta 0.00%
D
Germany 100.00%
Czech Republic 99.27%
Ireland 0.71%
Cyprus 0.02%
Wales 0.00%
Slovakia 0.00%
San Marino 0.00%
E
Croatia 99.76%
England 84.67%
Russia 15.54%
Israel 0.03%
Macedonia 0.00%
Estonia 0.00%
Andorra 0.00%
F
Sweden 99.74%
Spain 99.46%
Denmark 0.71%
Northern Ireland 0.09%
Iceland 0.00%
Latvia 0.00%
Liechtenstein 0.00%
G
Romania 99.59%
Netherlands 98.83%
Bulgaria 1.58%
Slovenia 0.00%
Belarus 0.00%
Albania 0.00%
Luxemburg 0.00%
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2007-10-14 - Untitled Comment |
| Posted by Petrograd |
If two or more teams end at the same point it's the result between the teams sharing point that decide who qualifies.
This is why Israel for instance has been eliminated already.
Personally I'm not very concerned, I think your numbers are very realistic, and it's nice to see a realistic unbiased evaluation.
Was also fun to see how Scotland's and Norway's chances increased with the results tonight =) |
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2007-10-14 - Untitled Comment |
| Posted by Petrograd |
Interestingly, this is what effect seeding has had:
1 - 645,94 ** 2 - 619,99 ** 3 - 72,59 ** 4 - 56,85 ** 5 - 4,49 ** 6 - 0,11 ** 7 - 0
(Seeding group and their total percentage. I omitted Israel's 0.03%.) Interesting how large the gap is between 2nd and 3rd seeds. Groups 4 and down are almost entirely from a single team, group 4 is Scotland, 5 Finland, 6 mainly Northern Ireland.
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2007-10-14 - Untitled Comment |
| Posted by roger64 |
| Actually, there's a bit of a self fulfilling prophecy here. The higher seeds tend to have higher ratings, which result in higher probabilities to win matches, but then again: I couldn't come up with a more accurate way of predicting results..., who could? |
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2007-10-14 - Untitled Comment |
| Posted by Petrograd |
You're right that they do tend to have higher ratings, but the seeding system at least isn't based on their ratings, though of course previous success in qualifications will have some affect on the teams' ratings.
On the other hand, teams with success so far in the tournament, will raise their ranking and increase their apparent chance for continued success.
Still it's surprising to me not more 3rd seeded teams are in the game still. Second-seeds were ranked 8th to 14th, I didn't expect them to be too much better than the 15 to 21 ranks. I guess it's a fairly large cliff :| Still, 13 of 14 teams currently in a top 2-position are first or second seeds. The exceptions being France (1st seed) that is ranked 3rd atm, and Scotland (4th seed) that is leading its group atm. |
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2007-10-14 - Stats |
| Posted by rdasilva |
I like the way the stats say that the Netherlands have a great chance to qualify. The way they're making a mockery of their 250-300 million Euro player worth is a joke! Even Cyprus have scored (five) more goals than the Netherlands in this qualifying campaign after nine games each. Shame van Basten is still at the helm. Although we just need two wins and a draw at home to Slovenia and Luxembourg and away to Belarus, I wouldn't put it past van Basten to screw it up! He's taken us from bad at the World Cup to even worse now! We barely beat Luxembourg (0-1) and Slovenia (0-1) away, and had it tough against the Albanians where we came away with two lucky-as-hell narrow 1-goal wins. We're even getting relegated in the turnip league as England is now seemingly turning the corner. I still have my fingers crossed for Hiddink's men to cause England some trouble, but it seems England is the voodoo doll for the Netherlands. Every time you stick a pin in England and laugh out loud, it seems to make my beloved Netherlands bleed!
Berwerkt door rdasilva aan 2007-10-14 bij 19:21 |
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