2007-09-14 - UEFA Coefficients
Following the many matches during the last week, here's the latest coefficients (modified 27 September, added Montenegro and comments):
1. Germany - 2.75
2. Netherlands - 2.60
3. Croatia - 2.47
4. Sweden - 2.39
5. England - 2.37
6. Italy*** - 2.26
7. Romania - 2.25
8. Czech Republic - 2.24
9. Poland - 2.14
10. Portugal - 2.14
11. Spain - 2.05
12. France - 2.05
13. Turkey - 2.00
14. Greece** - 2.00
15. Russia - 1.95
16. Serbia - 1.90
17. Ukraine - 1.90
18. Norway - 1.84
19. Israel - 1.84
20. Denmark - 1.80
21. Switzerland* - 1.80
22. Scotland - 1.79
23. Bulgaria - 1.74
24. Ireland - 1.63
25. Slovakia - 1.57
26. Bosnia and Herzegovina - 1.53
27. Finland - 1.52
28. Austria* - 1.50
29. Northern Ireland - 1.32
30. Hungary - 1.21
31. Slovenia - 1.16
32. Belgium - 1.15
33. Albania - 1.10
34. Lithuania - 1.05
35. Latvia - 1.05
36. Wales - 1.00
37. Estonia - 0.95
38. Belarus - 0.89
39. Georgia - 0.81
40. Macedonia - 0.81
41. Cyprus - 0.78
42. Armenia - 0.75
43. Iceland - 0.63
44. Liechtenstein - 0.57
45. Moldova - 0.53
46. Azerbaijan - 0.44
47. Malta - 0.44
48. Kazakhstan - 0.36
49. Andorra - 0.24
50. Faroe Islands - 0.05
51. Luxembourg - 0.00
52. San Marino - 0.00
53. Montenegro**** - 0.00
* seeded first automatically for 2008 European Championship as hosts
** seeded first automatically for 2008 European Championship as champions (if they qualify)
*** seeded first automatically for 2010 World Cup Qualifying
**** did not participate in 2006 World Cup qualifying or 2008 European Championship Qualifying
Now that we know there will be 9 groups at the 2010 World Cup Qualifying tournament (and assuming UEFA stick with the same system), it looks like Portugal, Spain and France are in serious danger of being drawn into difficult groups. For the 2008 European Championship it still looks like Germany will get the final seeding (next to Austria, Switzerland and Greece). Mind you, they have a couple of tough games coming up with Ireland away and the Czech Republic at home. Their nearest challengers, Netherlands and Croatia, still have to play away games against Romania and England respectively though... It might all go to the last day.
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Post A Comment!
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2007-09-14 - Untitled Comment |
| Posted by Petrograd |
I have different coefficients on Sweden and Denmark, 2.39 and 1.80 respectively. I'm guessing you counted the awarded 3-0 result that was handed to Sweden as the draw score it had at the time the game finished.
I doubt that is the statistics you really want in this case though :P
(I note that if that is the reason, you probably had other coefficients when you posted in June as well, but then I hadn't gotten impatient enough to make my own numbers.) |
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2007-09-14 - Untitled Comment |
| Posted by Petrograd |
Decided to check 'climbers' and 'sinkers' since the UEFA listing that was used when seeding for the EC qualifications. Here are the biggest movers:
Northern Ireland +14 (43 to 29)
Israel +8 (27 to 19)
Germany +6 (7 to 1)
Romania +6 (13 to 7)
Scotland +6 (28 to 22)
Croatia +5 (8 to 3)
Finland +5 (32 to 27)
Latvia -9 (26 to 35)
Belgium -8 (24 to 32)
Portugal -7 (3 to 10)
France -6 (5 to 11)
Iceland -6 (37 to 43)
Netherlands have gone from 1st to 2nd (I counted Greece's points, not their ranking, since that wont help them next time anyway.), but have improved their points from 2.55 to 2.6. The impressiveness of Germany's heavy movement is calmed some by the fact that their scores now kinda count double since they don't have any old WC record to count.
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2007-09-14 - Untitled Comment |
| Posted by Petrograd |
I'm spamming you >.<
Anyways, I also had a diff on Italy, I got their points to be 2,26 instead of 2,11. Noticed when the movers hadn't moved as much on your list in some cases >_>
I'm only spamming you like this because I really like your site! :P |
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2007-09-14 - Untitled Comment |
| Posted by Petrograd |
I'd sorted the teams with same points on the old list wrong most of the time previously. Here's a fix:
Northern Ireland +13 (42 to 29)*
Israel +8 (27 to 19)
Germany +6 (7 to 1)
Romania +6 (13 to 7)
Scotland +6 (28 to 22)
Croatia +5 (8 to 3)
Finland +5 (32 to 27)
Latvia -9 (26 to 35)
Portugal -8 (2 to 10)*
Belgium -7 (25 to 32)*
France -6 (5 to 11)
Iceland -6 (37 to 43)
*= modified |
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2007-09-15 - UEFA Coefficients |
| Posted by Mike |
| Thanks for posting Raoul. |
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2007-09-16 - Italy |
| Posted by rdasilva |
| Italy's coefficient was indeed way off. In my stats I had given them a lost instead of a win! Anyway, it's been corrected now. As for Denmark and Sweden, note sure how UEFA deal with this in the coefficients but it would seem most logical to use the awarded score because the actual game never actually officially finished. I have changed the coefficients also. |
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2007-09-16 - sasha |
| Posted by Anonymous |
| Well according to this, it is theoretically possible to have one clear EX Yugoslavia group (1st pot Croatia, 2nd Serbia, 3rd Bosnia, 4th Slovenia, 5th Macedonia, 6th Montenegro (unseeded)). That would be a mini championship, I mean it wan't happen, but it could be interesting, you know like British Championships doubled as EC and WC qualification few decades ago. |
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2007-09-18 - Re: sasha |
| Posted by rdasilva |
| Yeah, that would certainly be very interesting! I think the chances of that happening are quite tiny though. The chances are not so small that two or three Balkan teams will be drawn together though. Just a couple of months (25 November) to wait now until we find out for sure. |
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2007-09-26 - UEFA Coefficient or FIFA Ranking |
| Posted by Jungle Boy |
As a Scotland fan, I've taken a keen interest in how our seeding for 2010 qualifiers will be calculated, especially after superb recent performances.
From what I can see from UEFA or FIFA, there is nothing to suggest at this point, the draw will be based upon UEFA coefficient. I wouldn't look to recent history as gospel for the forthcoming draw in November.
Indeed, I personally believe the draw will be based upon FIFA ranking or a hybrid formula of this and UEFA the coefficient. With 'glamour' teams (eg France, Spain) struggling for Pot 1 and a clear path to the 2010 WC, I believe this is highly likely.
Call me cynical but I believe that the seeding system to be used should be divulged at the earliest possible date and not after Euro 2008 qualifying conclusion, when UEFA/FIFA can sit back and do what suits the nations with largest TV audiences and therefore largest wallets.
As a Scotland fan it looks like we're on course for Pot 2 regardless of which system is used (will overtake Ukraine if we beat them at home) so I feel I can be objective on this subject, however, I would like clarification in the interest of fairness all the same.
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2007-09-27 - Euro 2008 Seedings |
| Posted by rdasilva |
| In case anyone had any doubt, it has been confirmed by Platini today that the seedings above will be used to seed teams at the finals, and this time there won't be a random draw from the remaining teams not seeded first, but there will four pots of teams depending on their ranking. Phew, sounds good! It means we shouldn't be able to get a group like: Germany, Netherlands, France, England. http://sports.yahoo.com/sow/news?slug=afp-fbleur2008uefaplatini&prov=afp&type=lgns |
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2007-09-27 - Re: Euro 2008 Seedings |
| Posted by rdasilva |
Mind you, currently, and making some big assumptions on who will qualify... it would mean the following seeding pots:
Austria
Germany
Greece
Switzerland
Netherlands
Croatia
Sweden
England
Italy
Romania
Czech Republic
Poland
Portugal
Spain
France
Turkey
So, Germany, Netherlands, Italy, France is a serious possibility!!! On the other side: Austria, Sweden, Poland,Turkey (not meaning to insult anyone from those countries, but they're probably the weakest from each seeding pot)! |
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2007-09-27 - Untitled Comment |
| Posted by Petrograd |
Hehe, being Swede, I feel insulted! Nah, not really.
Especially considering Sweden's stable (at least last decade or so) record in qualifications, with an at least less-good follow up once qualified, I think it's reasonable to consider Sweden weakest in that group.
Also, if that stays, I'll be very happy to not have to meet Netherlands (and Croatia) in the finals. We "never" lose against England, so meeting them would be fine :P
I find it very interesting that the first seeding group comes across as very weak, even compared to the fourth!
That said, I'd probably prefer meeting Greece, or even Switzerland, over Austria, but then again the only match I've seen live was Sweden-Austria, 0-1 at home, in 1996. Ironically the last time to date that Sweden lost a qualifier at home without already being qualified. |
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2007-10-01 - Re: Untitled Comment |
| Posted by rdasilva |
I think if Greece qualify there's a 50% chance that Sweden/Holland/England/Croatia will get drawn into a group of death (with Switzerland or Germany). The Germans will be extremely tough, and I expect the Swiss to be very tough also come 2008. They totally outplayed a bad Dutch team (with many excellent players though) only recently, and held Argentina, although they lost to Japan. I expect the home advantage to really tell for them.
As for Sweden v England, I'd like to see it (because as you say the Swedes seem to prevail each time and I love to see England lose), but currently they'd be in the same seeding group so that wouldn't be possible. If England are to qualify, it's only likely that their coefficient will increase, so Sweden's would have to go down a bit to make sure they'll be a third seed to be able to draw the English. I think if Sweden lose one match and Italy win all their matches (not unlikely), it would mean both countries being equal, and then it would go to Italy because they would have had a better last campaign, and in that case Sweden could draw England (25% chance). ;-)
Berwerkt door rdasilva aan 2007-10-01 bij 12:54 |
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