2005-09-08 - 2006 World Cup Qualifying - Review
Where else to start but in Belfast. What
an amazing victory for the Northern Irish against England. To score a
1-0 victory in a World Cup qualifier against a team 109 places above
them in the FIFA ranking is quite remarkable. It is of course unlikely to matter much to either side in the overall scheme of things in group 6
as England are probably still favourites to win the group even though
that means having to win against Austria and Poland at home. Even if
they don't quite manage that they would still have a chance to qualify
as one of the two best runners up. In the other big match played in the
group, Poland pretty much guaranteed themselves a place in the finals
with a 1-0 home win against Wales. Barring a freak set of results,
their 24 points (the only possible number they can finish on in second
place) are unlikely to be bettered by two other teams so they can
probably even afford to lose their game against England.
In group 1,
both the Czechs, 4-1 winners at home to Armenia, and the Dutch, 4-0
winners at home to Andorra, managed comfortable wins while Finland
scored a handsome 5-1 home win against Macedonia to guarantee that they
finish at least fourth in the group. If they manage their two remaining
home games, a big ask against Romania and the Czech Republic, they
could still finish in third place.
As expected, Turkey managed a 1-0 away win in the Ukraine who had already qualified from group 2.
With Greece scraping a 2-1 away win to the group's minnows Kazakstan,
and Denmark rolling over Georgia by six goals to one, we're poised for
an interesting finale to the group. Turkey now seem to have the upper
hand although Greece would still have a chance to top them if Turkey
beat Albania away, and Greece upset Denmark away.
With Russia and Portugal drawing 0-0 in group 3,
Slovakia missed another chance to pull away from Russia in second
place. Their 1-1 draw in Latvia means that the game between the two in
Slovakia on the 12th of October will be decisive to determine the group
runner up.
As predicted, we finally had a winner in a match between the top four in group 4.
Thierry Henry was the difference as France got the lone goal to beat
Ireland in Dublin. With Israel and Switzerland also winning (2-0 away
to the Faroes, and 3-1 away to Cyprus respectively) a gap has now
opened up between them and Ireland. With several top players suspended
for the away game against Cyprus, Ireland now have it all to do to at
least secure a playoff place. The target for all teams will be to beat
the 18 points that Israel are likely to finish on. France look set to
beat that but will the others manage it?
With Scotland having another excellent day in group 5,
winning 2-1 away to Norway, Italy went five points clear with a
convincing 4-1 win away to Belarus. It now looks very unlikely that
Italy will have any challengers for their top spot. Even after their
home defeat, Norway are in control of their destiny knowing that a home
win to Moldova and an away win in Belarus should get them a playoff
place.
As seemed likely given what had happened before in group 7,
a 1-1 draw between Spain and Serbia and Montenegro means that Spain now
have it all to do to qualify for the finals. Their destiny is now in
the hand of their opponents, and they must hope for dropped points for
Serbia and Montenegro in their final two games, away to Lithuania and
at home to Bosnia and Herzegovina. Although the 1-1 result was unlike
the game itself with Spain controlling most of the match, the reality
is that Spain are likely to face a playoff in November that will seal
their fate. Bosnia and Herzegovina have moved to within a point of the
Spanish, but with both teams still having to face San Marino, and with
Spain having a seemingly easier tie away to Belgium compared to
Bosnia's tie against the Serbians, that difference is likely to stay
until the final group matches are over.
It was heartbreak for Croatia in group 8
as the pressure from Sweden finally took it's toll as they only managed
a 1-1 draw away to Malta. Sweden looked for much of the night to have
blown the opportunity to take over at the helm of the group until
Ibrahimovic's magic finally sealed a 1-0 win for the Swedes away to
Hungary, who really should have won the match. It now means the Sweden
only need a draw in Croatia to take the automatic place. Croatia will
need to win, and if they do Sweden has a good chance to take an
automatic place as one of the two best runners up.
The runner
up situation is getting clearer now. The runners up from group 1, 6 and
8 are likely to challenge for the automatic spots. The Czech Republic
can reach 24 points by winning their final two games, Poland (if they
were to finish in second place) would have 24 points, and so would
England if they manage a win against Austria, and a draw against
Poland. In group 8 both Sweden and Croatia could end up on 24 points,
and therefore goal difference may decide who qualifies. Sweden have by
far the best of those.
In the CONCACAF zone
Mexico qualified for the finals with ease following their 5-0 home win
against Panama. With Guatemala drawing 0-0 with the United States at
home, Costa Rica took advantage to open up a five point gap. With their
nearest challengers Guatemala facing a trip to Mexico in the
penultimate round of matches, Costa Rica looks strong favourite to take
the final automatic qualifying place. If we assume the worst for
Guatemala, Costa Rica will have qualified before their away match to
Guatemala in the last set of matches. Guatemala would then fancy their
chances to overcome the challenge of Trinidad and Tobago for a chance
to playoff against the winner of the Asian playoff.
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2005-09-09 - Northern Ireland 1, England 0 |
| Posted by Scott Turkington |
I'm still recovering from this one!!! Who would've thought that our wee country could've provided this sort of upset. I never, in my wildest dreams could've imagined this happening. The best we were hoping for was perhaps a scoring draw, but we went one better!!!
Our fans are without doubt the best in the world. We sing when we're winning, we sing when we're losing, we are passionate about our team, but always make light of bad situations (which we're used to!) and have a good time anyway.
The goal by David Healy was fantastic, the celebrations in and outside of the stadium were amazing, and the best team won on the night. I'm so proud to call myself Northern Irish on an occasion like this, as the whole night epitomised the fans and team's spirit, fight, passion and desire to work hard for each other. Long may it continue.....
P.S. FIFA's rankings are a complete joke. One place above St. Lucia, 15 behind Botswana..........................................................................give me a break!!!!!
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2005-09-09 - Re: Northern Ireland 1, England 0 |
| Posted by |
Congratulations Scott, didn't know you were Northern Irish. As for the FIFA rankings, yes, at times they do seem a little odd. The problem is that nations actually play each other very little. Over 200 nations are ranked but even if you look at England and Scotland who have been playing the longest, they've only ever played 10's of teams since 1872. I'm not exactly sure how the FIFA ranking works (never really analysed it), but I'm not sure whether it takes into account other teams when a match is played. Personally I like the ELO ratings (http://www.eloratings.net) and I've used that before to rank pool players. The ranking itself effectively takes into account the relative strength of teams in the ranking. It works by predicting a score between two nations given their rating, and then seeing how the actual performance differs from that. If the result is worse for one of the teams, it loses points. If it's better than expected that team gains points. Every match is taken into account rather than the best of the results like in the FIFA ranking. I think this also helps. Northern Ireland is 81st in that ranking at present... If you work through the maths (pretty simple) it really makes sense.
Edited by rdasilva on 2005-09-09 at 17:40 |
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2005-09-09 - Rating, Sweden, etc |
| Posted by Petrograd |
I do agree with the Elorating being considerably more fair than Fifa's. Personally I believe big countries seem to be overestimated by Fifa, we smaller get put behind ;)
As far as Sweden's victory against Hungary goes, we didn't do a great game, but Hungary pretty much just had one forward up there at most times. I don't really think they deserved a victory either. A draw would've been most fair. (But now we can lose to Croatia, win against Iceland and still take an auto runner up spot, so I'm not complaining ;) ) |
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2005-09-11 - Correction |
| Posted by Petrograd |
"The Czech Republic can reach 24 points by winning their final two games, Poland (if they were to finish in second place) would have 24 points, and so would England if they manage a win against Austria, and a draw against Poland."
England has 19 points, would get 23 with win+draw. |
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