2005-09-06 - 2006 World Cup Qualifying - September 7
Although all upcoming qualifying matches
are important as we're nearing the end of the qualifying, there are
four matches that really stand out this Wednesday:
- Group 2:
Ukraine v Turkey. As Ukraine has already qualified and may still be in
a relaxed and celebratery mood, Turkey may well benefit and get all
three points that they so desperately need. If they do win and win
their final match away to Albania they'll set a mean target that only
the Greeks would be able to beat, and then only if they won their
remaining three matches that includes a visit to Denmark. Ukraine and
Turkey have only met three times before, twice in friendlies in Turkey
(3-2 in 1996 and 0-0 in 2003) and once in a World Cup qualifier last
year. In the last match, Ukraine were comfortable 3-0 away winners, but
this time it's only the Turks that have something to play for, so I
expect them to prevail 1-2.
- Group 3:
Russia v Portugal. Both sides will be eager to win with Russia needing
a win to stay in touch with their group opponents. Portugal needs a win
to ensure they qualify at least for the playoffs. Portugal have the
upper hand in matches between the two nations with the Russians (as the
Soviet Union) can only count one win from the six previous meetings.
Indeed the last encounter last year was a virtual walkover with the
Portuguese winning 7-1. I think the Portuguese determination and their
free-scoring nature will be too much for the Russians so I'd predict a
0-2 here.
- Group 4:
Ireland v France. Surely the sequence of nine draws between the top
sides in this group must be beaten at some stage and this could be the
match where it finally happens. Both sides will take a giant step
towards qualification with a win and I reckon given the clash of styles
between the teams this will be the factor that finally breaks the
sequence. With some of their influential players back in the team I
think France will have too much for the Irish to shade the match 0-2,
even if history shows that more often than not the home side wins
between these two nations.
- Group 7:
Spain v Serbia and Montenegro. So far Spain have struggled to score in
group seven and Serbia and Montenegro haven't allowed any of their
opponents to score against them. If this trend continues Spain will be
condemned to the playoffs where they risk failing to reach the finals
for the first time in eight attempts. Spain will be under a great deal
of pressure in this game and the longer time goes on in this match
without them scoring the more likely their opponents are likely to take
advantage on the break. A draw would suit the Serbia and Montenegro
team and would make it hard for the Spanish to top the group. I think
the pressure of the occasion, which Spain rarely find themselves under
in qualifying competitions, and the expectancy of the Spanish
supporters might just be the deciding factor so I'd predict a 0-0 draw
just like the last encounter between the two sides at the end of March.
In other matches Italy will be looking to get their campaign back on
track away to Belarus, but it might be tougher than most people would
think. Belarus ran them very close last time when the Italians only
managed to shade the match 4-3. Sweden should win in Hungary to keep
the pressure on Croatia but they need to have their 'A' game with them
to beat Lothar Matheus' side. Slovakia will go to Latvia and should be
full of confidence following their impressive friendly win against
Germany on Saturday. Latvia will want be determined to keep their slim
hopes for a playoff place alive following a disastrous defeat to their
Baltic neighbours Estonia on Saturday. England should be too good for
Northern Ireland but the Irish have nothing to lose so they may prove
more difficult to beat than on paper. Scotland will be ready for Norway
following their impressive display against Italy on Saturday but with
Norway playing at home this may be the end for the Scots' dream to make
the finals. Poland will need to keep their impressive scoring record
alive to beat Wales and to keep the pressure on the English. If they do
they should be too strong for the Welsh. Even the seemingly
inconspicuous match between Liechtenstein and Luxembourg may have some
significance. If Luxembourg manage to upset their opponents and manage
to win one more of their remaining qualifying matches, it could mean
that results against Luxembourg instead of those against Liechtenstein
will be used to determine who qualifies as one of the two best
runners-up. All that is unlikely though, Luxembourg having lost all
nine of their qualifying matches so far that included a 0-4 turn-around
by Liechtenstein in Luxembourg last year.
Other important matches will take place in the CONCACAF zone
where Costa Rica could go six points clear of their challengers if they
beat Trinidad and Tobago at home and Guatemala lose to the United
States. This may however be Guatemala's best chance to upset the
Americans who qualified for the finals at the weekend. The Americans
will need to keep winning to keep their impressive FIFA ranking
that could yet see them nominated as one of the eight seeds for the
finals. History predicts a win for the Ticos, Trinidad and Tobago
having only won once in their previous 10 meetings. The story is
similar for the Guatemalans who can only look back to four friendly
match wins in the 70's and 80's after which they managed only three
draws in 11 subsequent matches to date. I'd predict a 2-0 win for Costa
Rica and a narrow 1-0 victory for the U.S.
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