2005-08-21 - 2006 World Cup - Seeding
I was doing a search on Google today and found some interesting articles on World Cup seeding:
Assuming FIFA
use the same method for determining the seeding this time around, it
looks like the following is the current state of play (using the FIFA Rankings of Dec 2003, Dec 2004 and Aug 2005, the latter to be replaced by November's ranking when it comes out):
- 1. Brazil - 63.67
- 2. Spain - 48.83
- 3. Germany 47.83 (Qualified) (seeded no matter what)
- 4. Mexico - 47.67
- 5. Argentina - 47.00 (Qualified)
- 6. England - 46.67
- 7. Italy - 45.50
- 8. France - 43.17
- 9. Netherlands - 42.67
- 10. United States - 42.00
- 11. Denmark - 37.50
- 12. Turkey - 36.33
- 13. Ireland - 32.83
- 14. Sweden - 32.50
- 15. South Korea - 29.50 (Qualified)
- 16. Czech Republic - 28.33
Using this system it would seem then that unless one of the top 8
doesn't qualify, the final seeding position will be a fight between
France, the Netherlands and the United States. A change of just two
positions in the right direction in the FIFA ranking between now and
November could make the difference.
Basically the system is
based equally (50-50) on an average of the FIFA ranking for the past 3
years, and on the average finishing position for the past 3 finals
tournaments (weighted 3:2:1 from 2002 to 1994). My only comment on this
system would be that they should also apply that same weighting of
3:2:1 for the past three FIFA rankings as it would seem that the latest
FIFA rankings would be more relevant than the ranking of 2 years ago.
Better still, they should use only the latest FIFA ranking as that's
100% relevant as it most accurately measures performance during the
qualifying campaign.
As I've now figured this system out I'll
be publishing updates of the (anticipated) seeding positions shortly
after the September, October and November rankings come out. The draw
for the finals is set for 9 December 2005 in Leipzig.
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Post A Comment!
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2005-08-30 - Seed for USA? |
| Posted by Anonymous |
Even though (or maybe especially because) I'm an American it's hard to see FIFA giving a seed to the US which would seem hardly deserved. When a country's best ever result is the final 8 (once) how can you justify a top 8 seed?
If the US beats Mexico and France and Holland slip up and somehow the US is 8th under the old rules, I expect to see FIFA tweak the rules (like in the past when they gave a seed to all past winners first before allocating the remainder). As long as France qualifies, I expect to see them seeded. |
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2005-08-31 - Re: Seed for USA? |
| Posted by |
Dear Anonymous, you forget the US' semi final appearance in the 1930 World Cup (http://www.rdasilva.demon.co.uk/football/wc/wc1930.html)!
In any case, I hear what you're saying and I sadly agree. I wish FIFA could publish the method that they're going to use like UEFA does BEFORE the qualifiers are known, and preferably before the qualification tournament even starts. If it was a sensible method that would make it more fair in terms of the seeding as teams would know exactly where they stand. To 'artificially' adjust or come up with some method when they know who has qualified and change it accordingly is of course scandalous and smells of marketing (if that is actually what goes on behind the closed doors). I guess the reason is also so they don't have national associations knocking on their door with complaints. I guess they try to please everyone, but with a different emphasis on how influential the association is.
Although I don't think the UEFA coefficient principle is perfect (because the groups could still end up like this time with Holland and the Czech Republic in the same group, currently ranked 3 and 4 in the FIFA ranking!), it does reward good performances and looks back only three years or so. To give teams a bump given their past performances of upto 11 years ago seems a little outdated for today's world if you ask me. Sure, the great teams of the past deserve our respect, but if teams from those nations are good now, surely they don't need any help whatsoever to make it to the top again???
Perhaps the answer is to have some sort of league mechanism like that used in other sports. I think in tennis and ice hockey they have different leagues of nations, i.e. the 'A' group, 'B' group, etc., and tournaments are played to determine who moves up and who moves down from those leagues. Teams at the bottom of the league could playoff against teams that end up at or near the top of the league below. This way we'd have a much fairer system in my opinion... To save costs you'd need continental groups to determine the best teams in each continent, but the final places should be determined from a World group where teams of all continents have equal chances. You'd probably be able to once-and-for-all get rid of the arguments to do with places at the finals for specific continents as you'd leave it up to a world group qualifying tournament to determine the final make-up of the finalists. The continental championships could be used as a basis for the groups. It would ofcourse be bad from a marketing perspective, but could you get much fairer? I think not! Perhaps if I have time I'll try and come up with a sensible method and see what people think.
It is of course the same story when the decision is made how many teams qualify from each continent and the attempts made in the finals draw to keep teams from each continent separate. For me personally it was sad to see a team like Holland miss out in the last World Cup in favour of teams like (with all due respect) China, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia (not picking on Asia or Africa, just picking out some teams that finished bottom of their group at the finals... my wife is Asian!). Although I'm totally FOR giving all continents equal chances of qualifying for the main event, my stronger desire is to see the best 32 nations in the World be given a chance to win the cup. The only way we can currently determine that is by using the FIFA World Ranking. Of course, whether that is accurate enough is an ongoing debate all around the internet, but the important thing is that the method is clearly identified and fair.
Saying all that about seeding, if you want to win or do well in a World Cup a team would of course have to beat allcomers and therefore the seeding shouldn't matter that much... If you're drawn with Brazil though, you know you're playing for the other remaining place so you'd much rather be seeded alongside them! :->
Edited by rdasilva on 2005-08-31 at 15:51 |
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