2007-12-03 - 2008 European Championship - Draw
For the second time in a week there was a major championship draw to enjoy. This time it was the turn of the Euro 2008 hopefuls to find out who they'll need to beat next summer. As usual it was very interesting to see how the seedings played their part in creating a nightmare for some, and a relatively easier group stage for others.
Group A
Switzerland will have a very tough time of it next summer with Portugal and the Czech Republic, and in Turkey, on the cards the weakest team in the group, they have an opponent who will want revenge for what happened in the 2006 World Cup qualifying playoffs when the Swiss beat the Turks on away goals. Of course we all know the problems that occurred after the bitter match. Although Portugal and the Czech Republic are the strongest on paper, I think home advantage for the Swiss might just tell and I'll predict them to make the quarter finals along with the Czech Republic.
Group B
I think there is no doubt now that Austria is going to join Belgium in being the only European Championship host to have not made the quarter finals, unless some very strange things happen between now and the summer. In Germany, Croatia and Poland the Austrians really have opponents that already have excellent qualifying campaigns behind them. For Germany and Austria there will be memories of an awful moment in world football when in 1982 the two conspired to fix a result that left the whole Algerian nation cry foul. After an early goal for the West Germans, both decided to play out the match without much further effort because both teams knew they would qualify for the second round, with Algeria having already finished their match. It lead to a change in tournament organization whereby final group matches would be played at the same time so as to lessen the chances of teams fixing a result. Although Poland are a very decent side, I can't see anyone other than Croatia and Germany progressing from this group. One thing that's almost for sure is that the Germans should at least end their 6-game losing streak (3 draws, 3 losses) in European Championship finals matches following their golden goal win in the 1996 final.
Group C
This is perhaps one of the toughest groups of death ever. The defending World Champions Italy and the runners up France head a group with the Netherlands and Romania. Perhaps the happiest of the managers is Marco van Basten who knows even getting knocked out after the first round won't exactly hurt because with such quality in the other teams his Dutch team won't be expected to progress. Indeed Romania, seen as the 'weakest' in the group, topped the Netherlands in their qualifying group by three points. It could therefore be argued that a team full of young talent that has at least made the quarter finals in the last 5 tournaments, and made the semis on three other occasions and won in 1988, will start out as underdogs in this group. Still, I think the order of the matches might still help the Netherlands who will meet both Italy and France before playing Romania. Although they might already have been eliminated before their third game, if they are not and they win their final game they have a good chance of progressing if they can find their scoring boots because they should know before the match what is needed to progress, although there's always the possibility that Italy and France, who also play each other on the final group day, might conspire to eliminate the Dutch depending on the results in the group. I don't know why but I don't think France and Italy will progress from this group. If I had to bet for my life I would bet on Italy and the Netherlands to progress, with the nervous-looking Domenech complaining that he's been robbed by the UEFA draw and other issues.
Group D
Just like Group C this is another group containing three former European Championship winners. Spain should be favorites to progress and might already be looking at who out of Group C they'll meet in the potential quarter final but with European Champions Greece who had another strong qualification campaign, upcoming Russia under surpremo coach Guus Hiddink, and the strong Swedish side they may very easily find themselves on the first plane home yet again. This is probably the most difficult of all groups to call with each team having a reasonable chance of progressing. If I had to make a call I'd say Spain and Greece to progress.
Quarter Finals and beyond
This tournament is peculiar in the way the final phase has been organized. Normally both semi finals are reachable by all groups, but for some reason in this tournament one semi final can only be reached by teams from group A & B, and the other only by teams from group C & D. This means that teams that have already played each other in the group phase can play each other again in the semi finals, rather than just in the final as was the case in 2004, 2000 and 1996. This is definitely a big bonus for the teams drawn in group A & B because there's just 2 former champions in those groups, opposed to the 6 former champions in groups C & D. This already means that we can't have a repeat of the 2006 World Cup final between Italy and France. If my predictions work out, we should see the quarter finals Czech Republic v Croatia, Germany v Switzerland, Italy v Greece and Spain v Netherlands. For the semis I'd then go for Germany v Croatia and Italy v Spain. On experience I'd then put the Germans in the final against the Italians, with the Germans getting revenge for the 2006 World Cup semi final loss to Italy in extra time. I'm sure everyone will have different opinions though, so the only way to resolve matters is to revisit this article after the finals take place in just 7 months time.
|
|
Comments (12) :: Post A Comment! :: Permanent Link
|
2007-11-25 - 2010 World Cup Draw - Europe
Well, as usual in these draws there are some very interesting groups. England were the one to avoid at all costs for the top teams, and amazingly they get another go at Croatia. Italy will be quietly confident but they might not have things all their own way.
Group 1
Portugal have drawn two difficult opponents in Sweden and Denmark, and Albania have shown during the most recent campaign that they will have a go against any opponent. Hungary and Malta on paper won't take any points off the big three. Sweden and Denmark's plan will be to try and get their home matches against the Portuguese scheduled during the winter as the Portuguese players won't be used to cold conditions. Portugal will of course be trying to do the opposite to their Scandinavian opponents.
Group 2
On paper this looks like an easy group, and top seeds Greece will be feeling quite happy. Saying that, Switzerland are a dark horse and we'll see how much better than their seeding they are next summer when they host the 2008 European Champiopnship. Israel have also showed that they are ready to play with the big boys and their recent record in qualifiers is most impressive. Moldova, Latvia and Luxembourg are the whipping boys.
Group 3
The Czechs again have to visit their neighbors Slovakia, and they'll need to see off a decent looking Polish side that finished top of their European Championship group under manager Leo Beenhakker. Northern Ireland might again be the surprise package, and Slovenia are no easy push-overs. San Marino make up the group.
Group 4
This looks like a group where the top seeded Germany should have things their way. Although both Russia and Finland are on the way up, I don't think they'll be able to challenge the Germans. Wales might make it tough for periods against the top two, but shouldn't prove to be a major menace. Azerbaijan and Liechtenstein are the group's minnows.
Group 5
This group looks like a straight fight between Spain and Turkey, with the rest of the group really not looking like they would cause the top two many problems. Belgium have struggled recently and might not even finish in third place in this group. Bosnia and Herzegovina are always very unpredictable and could cause the top two more problems than Belgium. Armenia and Estonia will definately be a case of how many the top two score here.
Group 6
Some people are calling it the group of death already but I really think group 8 is much more difficult. Sure, the English will have it tough again to beat Croatia to the automatic qualifying place, but the Ukraine don't look strong enough to challenge them. Belarus certainly are a difficult team to beat at home, as the Dutch found out only a few days ago. Kazakhstan and San Marino make up the rest of the group and should not provide any serious competition for the top sides.
Group 7
France are the top seeds in this group and will need to make sure that the decent Romanian team don't surprise them. Serbia aren't there to make up the numbers but the rest of the group looks failry straightfoward with Lithuania, Austria and the Faroe Islands making up the numbers.
Group 8
Italy will need their wits about them to make sure they have the chance to defend their title in South Africa. Bulgaria is on the up and the other teams making up the group won't be a walkover for them. Ireland are always difficult to beat at home, and Cyprus have shown that on their day they can make it difficult for teams who think they'll just need to turn up to take the points. Georgia, as they showed against Scotland recently are also no pushovers, and the group 'minnows' have already shown since being admitted to UEFA and FIFA aren't minnows at all. I actually think this might be the most difficult group of all and I can imagine the second-placed team in this group might have the worst record out of all groups, so to qualify for the World Cup would probably mean winning the group.
Group 9
On paper it looks like a straight knock out fight between the Netherlands and Scotland, and the last time that happened in 2003 it was the Netherlands who shaded it on goal difference after a 6-0 home demolition following a surprising 1-0 loss away in Scotland. How times have changed however. Then Scotland was very much in a state of transition, and the Netherlands could still get the most out of its players. The Netherlands should still be favourites in those encounters, but might find it very tough. Norway is also an old foe of the Dutch. In 1992 the Dutch were beaten by Norway during their World Cup qualifying campaign, although they still ended up beating England to the second qualifying place for the 1994 World Cup. Macedonia will also fancy their chances against the Dutch who they twice held to draws during the 2006 World Cup qualifying campaign, which is all the more remarkable in a group that also contained the Czech Republic and Romania, but the Macedonians were the only ones to take points off the Dutch. Iceland make up the group and should not prove a hurdle given their current form.
|
|
Comments (5) :: Post A Comment! :: Permanent Link
|
2007-11-21 - 2008 European Championship Seedings
A night of farce (Netherlands / Germany) and a night of unbelievable excitement (England/Croatia/Russia), these are the seedings for the European Championships now that the 16 qualifiers are known:
Pot 1:
1. Netherlands - 2.42
11. Greece - 2.17
20. Switzerland* - 1.80
27. Austria* - 1.50
Pot 2:
2. Croatia - 2.41
3. Italy - 2.36
4. Czech Republic - 2.33
5. Sweden - 2.27
Pot 3:
6. Romania - 2.25
7. Germany - 2.25
8. Portugal - 2.19
9. Spain - 2.18
Pot 4:
12. Poland - 2.17
13. France - 2.09
14. Turkey - 1.96
15. Russia - 1.96
|
|
Comments (27) :: Post A Comment! :: Permanent Link
|
2007-11-20 - world-results.net
Important Announcement
If all goes to plan over the coming months and if there's sufficient interest world-results.net will be going open source! After years of trying to move the website into the 21st century and trying to make the archive behind it more functional for website visitors I have to admit that I'm losing the battle to do everything that I have planned to do on my own in a reasonable time.
Below is a list of general areas that I've been trying to address in recent years in order to improve the user experience:
-
New database structure - When I started with the archive in 1988 I created a bespoke database that stored the matches in a very primitive manner. Then in the late 1990's I converted my archive to MySQL. In 2005 I started changing the physical database structure from a set of simple tables, one of which contained a complete list of matches, to a more object-oriented structure that would allow queries to happen at different levels. Both these database structures currently coincide side-by-side, although the new structure hasn't been updated since late 2006 due to lack of time. The older database structure has tournament data embedded into match records and this is hardly ideal. The newer structure is more object oriented and separates the tournament structure from the matches itself. I plan a further upgrade of the new structure without affecting the operation of the programs that query the data and generate web pages out of it.
- Creation of tournament templates - When I started the website in 1996 I quickly developed a set of tournament templates that could be copied and then modified to generate the pages you see on the website today. In 2000 these templates were made more advanced through embedded SQL statements that query the database, and the ability to add standard headers and footers. Before this process was completed, I decided upon yet another format that would store a set of tournament templates inside the database, and through a program allow creation of XML files that could then be transformed into any output format with the help of XSLT. The advantage being that the XML could be used to generate HTML files for the web, and other formats for those wanting to use the data in another way. The programs to do this partially working, but need further effort.
- New website - The primary role of the website has always been to share international football results and fixtures with interested visitors, with the
emphasis on the data and not on how it is presented. I'm the first to admit that the presentation of the data on the website is stuck in the last century, and that's hampering the usefulness of the data itself. Although I'm not after an all-singing and dancing website that draws visitors through its attractiveness, I would like to have something that visitors can use in the way that they want to use the data that it contains. As such I would like it to be customisable and internationalisable. I would also like to provide more dynamic features such as the ability to query the data.
- Updating of results / fixtures / news / event calendar - Although I generally have no problems keeping the data up-to-date as much as possible, I think it could be done better if this is shared between a set of trusted individuals. To be able to do this there needs to be some sort of application that allows this. Although I currently have an application that allows me to do this myself from anywhere with an internet connection, the application is far from ideal. I live on Central European Time (CET) so unless I stay awake until the middle of the night I can't always update the archive/website until the next morning for matches that are played in the Americas. Ideally the website will be kept up-to-date on a 24 hour 7 days a week basis, 365 days per year, but for that I need people I can rely on in different parts of the globe.
- Adding of auxiliary data - Many years ago when I started with the archive I chose to only record results and fixture data. I wasn't even interested in which country the match took place let alone which players played in the match or who scored the goals. Even though I updated my archive with country venues and later city/stadium venue information, player, scorer and other data is still missing from the archive. Although my interest in the data is pretty much covered by what the archive stores at present, I realise the are many people who are interested in retrieving auxiliary data from it. I would therefore be interested in people who have the time and interest in adding such data to the archive. I would also be interested in people that can populate the database with further venue information. Currently around 25% of all matches in the archive has complete venues associated with it, meaning a country, city and stadium but ideally this figure would be 100%.
In order to improve and develop the website and the archive behind it I'm looking for people who have time and share my enthusiasm and dedication for the collection of international football results. Ideally I'm looking for a team of people who are interested in working with the website and data in their spare time on an informal basis and want to share in it in some shape or form. Its not important that you are able to spend a fixed number of hours per week or per month. For me its more important that you are able to take tasks of any shape or form and complete them in a reasonable time, and communicate with others where you are at and if you are having problems.
I'm basically looking for experienced software developers (ideally with good Java experience, my preferred programming language), website developers, people who are good at organising, and people who don't mind updating the archive on an ad-hoc basis.
As the founder of the archive and the website I would like to continue to play a leading role in the future of it but I would also like to open up the archive/website and the direction it takes in future to those who offer to spend time working on it.
If you're still reading and contributing to world-results.net seems something that you would like to be a part of, please send me an email and let me know what you think and what you would be interested in doing. It would also be nice to have some sort of information about yourself and don't forget to let me have a reliable email address so I can keep you in touch with developments. If you don't think you'll have time to contribute, but would like to make some suggestions then feel free to email me also.
|
|
Comments (1) :: Post A Comment! :: Permanent Link
|
2007-11-19 - A game of three halves?
So I was watching a Dutch football talk show last night and guess who was invited. Henk Kesler the head of the KNVB (Royal Dutch Football Association). In an earlier article I doubted they knew exactly what was what. Well, they know exactly! He proudly said, in response to a wall of criticism of Marco van Basten and the Dutch national team, that UEFA ranked the Netherlands as the top team in Europe, and that they would likely be seeded as one of the four teams heading the groups at the finals. He also commented that he didn't exactly think that was a good idea given the teams that are the other groups heads, apart from the fact that they would be sure to play all their games in either Salzburg or Bern. What shocked me more was that he claimed that Germany had deliberately lost to the Czech Republic (at home) to make sure they wouldn't be seeded in the first group of teams with Austria, Switzerland and Greece!!! But then if that's true, how far does this go? Will the Netherlands and Germany and others carry on this little game on Wednesday? If so, I'd rush to a betting shop to put a bet on Germany not beating Wales at home and the Netherlands losing in Belarus on Wednesday because those are the results that are needed for them to move down the seeding groups (for the Netherlands of course only if Germany win against Wales). It of course also brings Croatia and potentially others into this. Was the 2-0 loss at the hands of Macedonia really such a great win or was it a great loss??? It seems that football is not only played in the stadium but inside the FA headquarters all around Europe! Of course, the Netherlands losing on Wednesday won't be proof because a win against Belarus away isn't exactly a foregone conclusion for any team these days, especially one that has scored less than Cyprus in this qualification campaign! Kesler also said that losing in Belarus wasn't exactly good for the FIFA ranking, and that could still possibly mean they would be seeded in the second group of seeds for the upcoming World Cup qualifying draw. He also said that Van Basten is very keen to win and told Kesler that to become European Champion you need to beat everyone anyway so it doesn't matter whether you get draw against easy or difficult opponents. That is of course true, and if you can get yourself out of a 'group of death' there could potentially be lesser teams in the quarters and semis. If Van Basten sets his aims so high, i.e. winning the tournament, which isn't so unbelievable given the Netherlands' recent European Championship history and the quality of their players, then of course it doesn't matter if you get beaten in the first round or in the semis. Both would be failures. Kesler also alluded to Germany's situation when reacting to further criticism. Before the World Cup Klinsmann was under intense pressure, not being able to put a serious run of results together. Indeed, I remember watching Germany play Japan a week or so before the tournament with the Germans 0-2 down and thinking that they were just hopeless and didn't have a chance in hell. How wrong I was then, and possibly how wrong all those criticizing the Dutch team could be now. Saying that, we won't be playing at home, and that helped the German team a great deal of course. Oh well, only time will tell.
On a side matter, I wonder how many people are rushing to the betting shops to bet on England to win the finals next year. They looked so out of it following their loss in Russia that it could be fate messing around in football again. Remember Denmark 1992? Denmark didn't even qualify and won the tournament. How about 2004 when Greece came from nowhere to win? Much as I'd hate it, I'm starting to think England would be a good bet.
|
|
Comments (8) :: Post A Comment! :: Permanent Link
|
2007-11-17 - 2008 European Championship - Seedings for finals
Following this evening's crazy night of football, one thing is for sure. Joining Austria, Greece and Switzerland is either Netherlands or Germany. If Netherlands avoid defeat in Belarus, they will be a top seed, otherwise if Netherlands lose Germany will get that honor...
Here's the UEFA coefficients, of countries that have either qualified or still have a chance to qualify, that will determine the 2008 European Championship seedings:
1. Netherlands - 2.52 ***
2. Croatia - 2.38 ***
3. Germany - 2.36 ***
4. Italy - 2.33 ***
5. Czech Republic - 2.30 ***
6. England - 2.29
7. Portugal - 2.24
8. Sweden - 2.24
9. Romania - 2.22 ***
10. Poland - 2.22 ***
11. France - 2.14 ***
12. Spain - 2.14 ***
13. Greece ** - 2.13 ***
14. Turkey - 1.91
15. Russia - 1.91
16. Serbia - 1.91
17. Norway - 1.81
19. Switzerland* - 1.80 ***
25. Finland - 1.56
27. Austria* - 1.50 ***
28. Northern Ireland - 1.38
* Euro 2008 host (top seed)
** Euro 2004 winner (top seed)
*** already qualified
With the only two unbeaten countries before tonight having been beaten, i.e. Croatia and Romania, this is now the worst European qualification tournament (including World Cup qualification tournaments for Europe) since the qualifiying tournament of 1984. In modern day football, which I choose to be from 1978 for the purposes of making my point and because I can't be bothered searching for crapness any further back than that, no other European qualifying tournament has ever been played where all countries have been beaten at least once. Of course, in 1984 there were only 30 or so countries, and these days we have over 50. I think it clearly shows how the top countries are getting worse, and how much the also-rans are getting better! I think I'm seriously going to put some money on Austria to win Euro 2008 next year because it really is that close between the top nations now. Anyone can beat anyone else!
|
|
Comments (9) :: Post A Comment! :: Permanent Link
|
2007-11-14 - 2008 European Championship Qualifying - Crunch matches 17 November
Here's a quick look at the crunch matches coming up on Saturday that are likely to result in teams qualifying themselves for the finals.
Group A
Poland v Belgium
Poland know that a win will see them qualify for the European Championship finals for the first time ever, and that would be sweet knowing that they'll be co-hosts the next time around in 2012. Their legendary Dutch manager Leo Beenhakker will want to make sure they use Saturday's match to get the three points they need because he knows how difficult their away match against Serbia will be otherwise next Wednesday. Poland and Belgium have met 18 times since 1931, with both Poland and Belgium having won 6 times each. At home it's not much different with both teams having won twice. The teams can only be separated on recent form and then we have to conclude that Poland will qualify on Saturday.
Group B
Scotland v Italy
Looking back at history suggests that Italy will be hard to beat with Italy having won 6 off the 9 encounters dating back to 1931. Scotland's only victory against their rivals came in a home qualifier for the 1966 World Cup when the Scots won 1-0. The two other games, played in Scotland, have been drawn. If we look at the home record of Scotland against Italy then it tells us a different story. In fact, Italy have never won in Scotland in three attempts. The Italians of course only realistically need a draw to qualify. This is a very difficult one to call as I see only questions. Will we see a brave Scotland fighting to the death, or will we see them shoot themselves in the foot as has been common when the Scots have needed to win in the past? Will the Italians be affected by the problems at home or will we see the Italians prove why they are the current World Champions? Or will we see a repeat of the feat that the Scots inflicted on the World Cup holders some 40 years ago when they beat England?
Group C
Norway v Turkey
If the match between Scotland and Italy is hard to call, then this one is even more difficult. The two countries are historically in balance with each having won 3 of the 8 previous encounters, and the two most recent matches having ended in draws. With the Norwegians only needing a draw to keep it in their hands I think Turkey will be very much up against it in Oslo on Saturday.
Group E
Macedonia v Croatia
Israel v Russia
Even though the two countries are relatively young, Croatia and Macedonia have already met five times, with Croatia coming off the better having won on 3 occasions. The matches in Macedonia have been close affairs though, having ended 1-1 and 0-1 for Croatia, so that Croatia will qualify for the finals on Saturday is no foregone conclusion. If they don't get the draw they need, expect a real crunch match in London next week if Russia take the points in Israel. It would be an absolute disaster if Croatia lose to Macedonia and then lose to England. It is even still possible that two losses for Croatia will still see them qualify. England would need to beat Croatia 2-0,4-1, or 5-2, etc. Personally I think the drive of the Croatians will see them be sure of their place in the finals before they travel to London.
If we take all the incarnations of Russia into account (Soviet Union, C.I.S., Russia), Russia and Israel have met each other 12 times since 1956, with the Russians having won 6 matches, and the Israelis having one 3 matches, with the other three matches having ended in draws. In Israel the balance is slightly more favorable for the Israelis and suggests that the Russians will have it tough in Tel Aviv with both teams having won twice and the other two matches having ended in draws. I still think the resurgent Russians will be too strong on Saturday with Hiddink at the helm. Hiddink has shown time and time again with national and international teams that he has what it takes. Will his impressive run continue or will he hand England back the initiative?
Group F
Spain v Sweden
This looks like a good game on paper and history suggests that Spain will make sure of their place in the finals following a good run of form following their false start in this group. Spain have the slightly better record (4 wins, 3 losses, 4 draws) in the head to head, but at home the Swedes only have a win and a draw from their 4 encounters. Indeed if recent form is anything to go by the Swedes should be made to wait until next Wednesday to make sure of their place in the finals. They may yet qualify even if they lose if Northern Ireland also drop points at home to Denmark.
Group G
Bulgaria v Romania
Netherlands v Luxembourg
Although qualification isn't on the table for Bulgaria on the night, I have included this match because if may yet mean that the other match in completely irrelevant, seeing as the Netherlands will host Luxembourg when the match in Sofia has already finished. Anything but a win for Bulgaria in this match would mean that the Netherlands are guaranteed a place in the finals. Romania have themselves already qualified but might be keen to show that their qualification was not a mistake. They also won't want to be upstaged by their neighbors. The two have met each other on no less than 32 previous occasions, with Romania having won 20 of those matches. In the last four encounters that trend has been reversed however, with Bulgaria having won twice and drawn the other two matches. My money would be on a draw that would mean there could be a party on the cards in Rotterdam.
Netherlands versus Luxembourg looks like a foregone conclusion if you were to ask anyone with any knowledge whatsoever of football, and indeed if you look at what has happened in the past. But who knows that Luxembourg hasn't always been a walkover for the men of Oranje? In fact, only eleven of the fourteen matches have gone to the Dutch, with the Luxembourg team having won twice in Rotterdam, once in 1940 (4-5) , and one famously in a European Qualifier in 1963 (1-2). Is that an omen for things to come? Indeed if the last encounter between the two is anything to go by, a very, very narrow 0-1 win for the Dutch in Luxembourg, the Dutch might be nervously looking towards Sofia before the game. On the other side of the coin, the Dutch have an impressive European Championship qualifying record that is unheralded in European history. They have only ever lost one of their home encounters in a run stretching 43 games and 44 years! And who was that team that beat them? Italy? France? England? Germany? Spain? For those paying attention there was already a big clue earlier in this paragraph! Indeed it was the Luxembourg team of 1963!!! I wonder what the odds are on Luxembourg bringing that run to an end?
|
|
Comments (0) :: Post A Comment! :: Permanent Link
|
2007-10-24 - 2010 World Cup Qualifying Draw - Europe
(modified 25 October, see below in red)
Well, the FIFA rankings for October just came out. The changes in the top teams are as expected with England, Germany and Netherlands all moving down slightly. Italy's slide is slightly more unexpected, but without looking into the details I guess they're losing some important points from last year... The Czech Republic, Greece, Romania and Russia are moving in the right direction but as the rankings from next month are likely to decide the seeding groups for the World Cup Qualifying draw, it looks like their movements are to late to get them into the top seeding groups. If the draw were made from this ranking, the teams would be seeded as follows (in order of their FIFA ranking):
- Italy
- France
- Germany
- Spain
- Netherlands
- Portugal
- Czech Republic
- Croatia
- England
- Romania
- Scotland
- Greece
- Russia
- Poland
- Norway
- Ukraine
- Sweden
- Serbia
- Turkey
- Denmark
- Ireland
- Bulgaria
- Northern Ireland
- Israel
- Switzerland
- Finland
- Hungary
- Bosnia and Herzegovina
- Slovakia
- Belgium
- Cyprus
- Wales
- Moldova
- Albania
- Georgia
- Macedonia
I must say that if the 2008 European Championship Qualification campaign is anything to go by, the teams in the top seeding group are not going to find qualification easy. Teams like Romania, Scotland, Greece, Russia and Sweden in the second group are going to prove difficult to beat, let alone teams like Turkey, Denmark, Ireland, Switzerland and Finland from the third seeding group and Slovakia and Cyprus from the fourth seeding group who have caused more than a stir to date.
For the top seeds mentioned above, I think only England and Croatia have to worry about Romania or Scotland forcing them down a group. It's all the more interesting as England play Croatia on 21 November just four days before the qualifying draw is held. The end of November is going to be an exciting time, with the final qualification matches for the European Championship, the new FIFA rankings, the 2010 World Cup draw, and just a week later the draw for the finals of the 2008 European Championship.
(addition 25 October)
Hmmmmmmmmm, what if we did the draw completely fairly by giving everyone a seeding number and drawing like they do at Wimbledon by keeping seeds apart so that 1 meets 2 in the final, and 1 plays 4 and 2 plays 3 in the semi finals. Then we'd get this amazing draw without any groups of death! Will it happen? I think not. Not only will FIFA not have a 'marketing' draw, but if no randomness is added to the draw we'll get the situation where teams could know what group they will be in when they achieve a certain result near the end of the campaign... It's a real shame, because these groups are the most fair I've ever seen!!!
Italy (top seed group 1)
Serbia (bottom seed group 2)
Turkey (top seed group 3)
Macedonia (bottom seed group 4)
Slovenia (top seed group 5)
France (second seed group 1)
Sweden (penultimate seed group 2)
Denmark (second seed group 3)
Georgia (penultimate seed group 4)
Iceland (second seed group 5)
San Marino (penultimate seed group 6)
Germany (...)
Ukraine (...)
Ireland (...)
Albania
Armenia
Faroe Islands
Spain
Norway
Bulgaria
Moldova
Latvia
Andorra
Netherlands
Poland
Northern Ireland
Wales
Austria
Montenegro
Portugal
Russia
Israel
Cyprus
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Czech Republic
Greece
Switzerland
Belgium
Belarus
Malta
Croatia
Scotland
Finland
Slovakia
Azerbaijan
Estonia
England
Romania
Hungary
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Liechtenstein
Kazakhstan
|
|
Comments (5) :: Post A Comment! :: Permanent Link
|
2007-10-18 - Euro 2008 Qualification - In their own hands...
Points needed to qualify, and what that means in terms of results (modified 'France' 24 October):
- 1 - Croatia (E) - draw Macedonia (A) (17/11) or draw England (A) (21/11)
- 1 - France (B) - draw Ukraine (A) (21/11)
- 1 - Sweden (F) - draw Spain (A) (17/11) or draw Latvia (H) (21/11)
- 2 - Netherlands (G) - win Luxembourg (H) (17/11) or draw Luxembourg and draw Belarus (A) (21/11)
- 3 - Italy (B) - win Scotland (A) (17/11) or draw Scotland and win Faroe Islands (H) (21/11)
- 3 - Norway (C) - win Turkey (H) (17/11)
- 3 - Poland (A) - win Belgium (H) (17/11)
- 3 - Scotland (B) - win Italy (H) (17/11)
- 3 - Spain (F) - win Sweden (H) (17/11) or win Northern Ireland (H) (21/11)
- 4 - Portugal (A) - win/draw Armenia (H) (17/11) and draw/win Finland (H) (21/11)
- 6 - Finland (A) - win Azerbaijan (H) (17/11) and win Portugal (A) (21/11)
- 6 - Russia (E) - win Israel (A) (17/11) and win Andorra (A) (21/11)
- 6 - Turkey (C) - win Norway (A) (17/11) and win Bosnia and Herzegovina (H) (21/11)
(H) = home
(A) = away
France will of course already qualify if Italy beat Scotland away on 17/11, and so will Croatia if Russia fail to beat Israel away. Spain and Sweden will also qualify if Denmark draw with Northern Ireland. And finally, the Netherlands will qualify if Bulgaria fail to beat Romania at home.
|
|
Comments (14) :: Post A Comment! :: Permanent Link
|
2007-10-17 - UEFA Coefficients
Following tonight's interesting qualification matches here are the latest coefficients:
1. Croatia - 2.50
2. Netherlands - 2.50
3. Sweden - 2.35
4. Romania - 2.32
5. Germany - 2.30
6. Italy - 2.30
7. England - 2.29
8. Czech Republic - 2.27
9. Portugal - 2.21
10. Poland - 2.18
11. France - 2.14
12. Spain - 2.10
13. Greece - 2.09
14. Russia - 2.00
15. Serbia - 1.91
16. Norway - 1.90
17. Turkey - 1.86
18. Ukraine - 1.86
19. Switzerland* - 1.80
20. Denmark - 1.77
21. Scotland - 1.76
22. Israel - 1.75
23. Bulgaria - 1.70
24. Slovakia - 1.64
25. Ireland - 1.57
26. Finland - 1.50
27. Austria* - 1.50
28. Bosnia and Herzegovina - 1.38
29. Northern Ireland - 1.30
30. Hungary - 1.30
31. Belgium - 1.23
32. Slovenia - 1.10
33. Albania - 1.09
34. Latvia - 1.09
35. Wales - 1.05
36. Lithuania - 1.00
37. Estonia - 0.91
38. Macedonia - 0.91
39. Cyprus - 0.90
40. Georgia - 0.87
41. Belarus - 0.85
42. Armenia - 0.73
43. Moldova - 0.67
44. Liechtenstein - 0.65
45. Iceland - 0.57
46. Azerbaijan - 0.40
47. Malta - 0.40
48. Kazakhstan - 0.33
49. Andorra - 0.23
50. Luxembourg - 0.13
51. Faroe Islands - 0.05
52. San Marino - 0.00
53. Montenegro - 0.00
Following Germany's thrashing at home to the Czech Republic, the new leader is Croatia by virtue of having the better qualification record in the current campaign than the Netherlands. Romania have also made a big move upwards. If we assume the current likely qualifiers for the 2008 European Championship, here's the seedings:
Austria
Croatia
Greece
Switzerland
Germany
Netherlands
Romania
Sweden
Czech Republic
Italy
Poland
Portugal
France
Norway
Russia
Spain
Actually, I'm still not convinced Russia will qualify even after today's miracle win against England. Russia don't have a good record away to Israel... As for Scotland, I don't wanna say "I told you so", but I told you so. Georgia away is no easy fixture, especially if you don't really turn up to play.
Congratulations to the Czech Republic, Greece and Romania who qualified for the finals today!
|
|
Comments (9) :: Post A Comment! :: Permanent Link
|
2007-10-15 - 2008 European Championship Qualifying - State of play
Group A
As there were no real surprises on Saturday, the state of play really hasn't changed other than that Poland and Portugal are a little closer to qualifying. Wednesday should see Portugal extend their lead over third-placed Finland by a further three points, but it looks like the group won't be decided until the final set of matches that take place on 21 November, that is assuming Finland beats Azerbaijan. Poland will be able to relax if they beat Belgium four days earlier. Portugal will have a nervy final game against Finland but only need a draw. A win for Finland in that game would mean Portugal would miss out.
Group B
Much like in Group A, all is still to play for in this group. Only Ukraine fell by the way-side following their loss away to Scotland. Assuming all other matches are won, the real decider will be played at Hampden Park when Scotland host Italy. France know that whatever happens in that decider, that if they beat Lithuania on Wednesday that they'll qualify if they beat Ukraine on the final day in the group, unless Scotland lose to Italy and don't win away to Georgia on Wednesday. It wouldn't be the first time the French face potential elimination on the final day, having missed out at home to Bulgaria in 1993.
Group C
Yet another group where all is still to play for with Greece, Turkey and Norway still in the running. On Saturday Turkey scraped a point away to Moldova meaning that Norway still have a realistic chance. With Turkey hosting Greece on Wednesday all of Norway will be hoping for a draw so that if Norway wins their game in hand they should be in the driving seat when they host Turkey in November. Greece will want to revenge the 1-4 home defeat they suffered against their bitter rivals in March, and if they do they'll qualify for the finals. Norway themselves must concentrate and make sure they don't slip on the banana skin that has seen many teams leave Sarajevo without a point to show for it.
Group D
Germany made sure of their place in the finals that never really looked in danger even though they weren't the better team in Dublin on Saturday. They'll want to make sure they end their qualification campaign on a high by beating their nearest challengers, the Czech Republic, on Wednesday, and then Cyprus and Wales at home on 17 and 21 November respectively. The Czechs themselves have the luxury of knowing even a loss will leave them with excellent chances because all they realistically need is a single point from their final three matches (away to Germany, home to Slovakia and away to Cyprus) to make the finals, assuming Cyprus don't beat both Ireland and Germany away and then the Czechs themselves at home on the final day.
Group E
Both Croatia and England kept the pressure on Russia by winning at home to Israel and Estonia respectively, but Russia aren't out of this group by any means. A win at home on their icy artificial surface in Moscow would mean that the Russians would have matters in their own hands, and even a draw wouldn't yet mean that they would be eliminated, although they would then need to hope that England lose to Croatia at home on the final day. A win for England would mean both they and Croatia qualify for the finals.
Group F
Following wins on Saturday for Sweden and Spain, it seems that it's just a matter of time before both will qualify for the finals. Sweden can make sure by beating the Northern Irish at home on Wednesday. Spain would then have the luxury of knowing that they could afford to lose at home to Sweden in their penultimate match if they can manage a draw to the Northern Irish on the final day.
Group G
Howling wind, driving rain and a goal that looked offside meant that Romania took a big step towards qualification on Saturday. Although even they admitted they were the inferior side, it was they who took the three points and leave the Netherlands with a minor headache. Saying all that, the Netherlands know that their inability to find the net means they are in this situation. Out of all the groups' top four teams, they've scored the fewest goals to date except for Slovenia. On the positive side however, the Netherlands know that following their crucial win over the third-placed team Bulgaria in September, that they have matters in their own hands. With home games against Slovenia and Luxembourg, and an away match to Belarus being the only realistic potential banana skin, the Dutch should be at the finals next summer. Bulgaria still have hope, but with three tricky games left they will need to be firing on all cylinders and hope that the Dutch continue to struggle. On Wednesday Bulgaria meet Albania away from home, and that is followed by a home match against the resilient Romanian side on 17 November. Their final match away to Slovenia is also not a foregone conclusion so the Netherlands might yet seal their place at home to Luxembourg in their penultimate match.
|
|
Comments (0) :: Post A Comment! :: Permanent Link
|
2007-10-14 - UEFA Coefficients
Following yesterday's matches, here's the latest UEFA coefficients that will be used to determine the groups of seeds for the 2008 European Championship.
1. Germany - 2.56
2. Croatia - 2.50
3. Netherlands - 2.48
4. Sweden - 2.42
5. England - 2.40
6. Italy - 2.30
7. Romania - 2.29
8. Czech Republic - 2.24
9. Poland - 2.18
10. Portugal - 2.17
11. France - 2.10
12. Spain - 2.10
13. Greece - 2.05
14. Turkey - 1.95
15. Russia - 1.95
16. Ukraine - 1.81
17. Serbia - 1.86
18. Scotland - 1.85
19. Norway - 1.84
20. Switzerland* - 1.80
21. Israel - 1.75
22. Bulgaria - 1.74
23. Denmark - 1.71
24. Slovakia - 1.64
25. Ireland - 1.60
26. Austria* - 1.50
27. Finland - 1.50
28. Bosnia and Herzegovina - 1.45
29. Northern Ireland - 1.32
30. Hungary - 1.30
31. Slovenia - 1.15
32. Latvia - 1.14
33. Belgium - 1.14
34. Albania - 1.10
35. Lithuania - 1.05
36. Wales - 0.95
37. Estonia - 0.91
38. Cyprus - 0.89
39. Belarus - 0.85
40. Macedonia - 0.81
41. Georgia - 0.77
42. Armenia - 0.76
43. Iceland - 0.60
44. Moldova - 0.55
45. Liechtenstein - 0.55
46. Azerbaijan - 0.42
47. Malta - 0.42
48. Kazakhstan - 0.35
49. Andorra - 0.24
50. Luxembourg - 0.14
51. Faroe Islands - 0.05
52. San Marino - 0.00
In the top 12, only the Netherlands and Croatia, and Spain and France have swapped places, meaning that if the draw was to happen today (and taking the most obvious qualifiers), the seeds would be as follows:
Austria
Germany
Greece
Switzerland
Croatia
England
Netherlands
Sweden
Czech Republic
Italy
Poland
Romania
Portugal
Spain
France
Turkey
|
|
Comments (6) :: Post A Comment! :: Permanent Link
|
2007-10-03 - 2008 European Championship Qualifying - State of play
In just over a week and a half the penultimate set of matches will take place as a double-header on 13 and 17 October. The following is the current state of play for each of the groups. Amazingly 31 teams are still capable of taking a place at next year's final, meaning only 19 teams have so far been eliminated, and the situation might yet arise where no team has qualified until November when another double header is scheduled for 17 and 21 November.
Group A
- Can be eliminated:
- Serbia if they lose to Armenia and Azerbaijan (both away), and Portugal beat Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan (both away), and Poland beat Kazakhstan away.
- Belgium if they lose to Finland at home.
- Armenia if they don't beat Serbia at home and Belgium away, or if Finland avoid defeat against Belgium.
- Still in the race:
- Poland
- Finland
- Portugal
- Serbia
- Belgium
- Armenia.
Group B
- Can be eliminated:
- Ukraine if they don't beat Scotland away, and Italy beat Georgia at home.
- Still in the race:
- Scotland
- Italy
- France
- Ukraine
- Already eliminated:
- Lithuania
- Georgia
- Faroe Islands
Group C
- Can be eliminated:
- Bosnia and Herzegovina if they lose to Greece away, and Turkey beats Moldova away.
- Still in the race:
- Greece
- Turkey
- Norway
- Bosnia and Herzegovina
Group D
- Can qualify:
- Germany if they don't lose away to Ireland.
- The Czechs if Germany beats Ireland away, or if they beat Germany away.
- Can be eliminated:
- Ireland if they lose to Germany, or if they draw and the Czech Republic beats Germany away.
- Still in the race:
- Germany
- Czech Republic
- Ireland
- Wales
- Cyprus
Group E
- Can qualify:
- Croatia if they beat Israel at home and Russia fails to beat England at home.
- England if they beat Estonia at home, and Russia away.
- Can be eliminated:
- Russia if England beat Estonia at home and if Russia lose to England at home.
- Israel if they lose to Croatia and England win their two games.
- Still in the race:
- Croatia
- England
- Russia
- Israel
- Already eliminated:
- Macedonia
- Estonia
- Andorra
Group F
- Can qualify:
- Sweden if they beat Liechtenstein away and Northern Ireland at home, and Denmark lose to Spain or Latvia at home.
- Can be eliminated:
- Denmark if they lose to Spain and fail to beat Latvia at home.
- Still in the race:
- Sweden
- Spain
- Northern Ireland
- Denmark
- Already eliminated:
- Iceland
- Latvia
- Liechtenstein
Group G
- Can qualify:
- Romania if they beat Netherlands at home and Bulgaria lose to Albania away.
- Netherlands if they beat Romania away and Slovenia at home.
- Can be eliminated:
- Albania if they lose to Slovenia away or to Bulgaria at home.
- Still in the race:
- Romania
- Netherlands
- Bulgaria
- Albania
- Already eliminated:
- Slovenia
- Belarus
- Luxembourg
With reference to my tips, I think the only major doubts in my mind are what will happen in group B, where Scotland could split or lead the two World Cup finalists, group C where Norway could still surprise either Greece or Turkey and group E where Russia could yet eliminate England. But then football is a funny game. I wonder what the odds are for 'dark horses' Finland, Serbia, Ireland, Israel, Denmark, Northern Ireland or Bulgaria to qualify. I certainly wouldn't completely write any of them off, especially the latter who will still be hoping the Netherlands keep playing as badly as they are...
The ones with the most to lose and therefore most nerves look to be the World Cup finalists France and Italy, as well as England who are still needing to win every match they play. Although a draw away to Russia would keep them above their nearest rivals, they could still miss out if they lost their final game to Croatia, who admittedly would probably already have qualified at that stage and might not care too much about that game.
|
|
Comments (12) :: Post A Comment! :: Permanent Link
|
2007-09-27 - 2010 World Cup Qualifying - UEFA Seeding
It has just been announced that the FIFA ranking will be used in determining seeding groups for the 2010 World Cup qualifying, rather than the UEFA country coefficients as in the past. I must say I'm not excited by this prospect, although it doesn't actually mean that much for the majority of teams. There's some big gainers and losers though.
If the current ranking is used (and I expect that the November ranking will be used rather than the September ranking) Italy, Germany, Netherlands, England, Croatia and Czech Republic would still be seeded first, but France, Spain and Portugal would 'replace' Romania, Poland and Sweden as first seeds. Further down, Scotland would be seeded in the second group instead of Norway, and Northern Ireland would move up to the third group.
Although using the FIFA rankings will reward those who put in good performances in the big tournaments, it would also mean friendly performances have influence in how teams are seeded. I must say I strongly prefer using only qualifying competitions for seeding because they are the same for everyone and give everyone an equal chance. Of course, every team can qualify for the big tournaments, but then you're measuring things across different teams in different circumstances. Measuring everyone in the same way is to me preferable. But I guess FIFA want to use their rankings for something. 
|
|
Comments (12) :: Post A Comment! :: Permanent Link
|
2007-09-14 - UEFA Coefficients
Following the many matches during the last week, here's the latest coefficients (modified 27 September, added Montenegro and comments):
1. Germany - 2.75
2. Netherlands - 2.60
3. Croatia - 2.47
4. Sweden - 2.39
5. England - 2.37
6. Italy*** - 2.26
7. Romania - 2.25
8. Czech Republic - 2.24
9. Poland - 2.14
10. Portugal - 2.14
11. Spain - 2.05
12. France - 2.05
13. Turkey - 2.00
14. Greece** - 2.00
15. Russia - 1.95
16. Serbia - 1.90
17. Ukraine - 1.90
18. Norway - 1.84
19. Israel - 1.84
20. Denmark - 1.80
21. Switzerland* - 1.80
22. Scotland - 1.79
23. Bulgaria - 1.74
24. Ireland - 1.63
25. Slovakia - 1.57
26. Bosnia and Herzegovina - 1.53
27. Finland - 1.52
28. Austria* - 1.50
29. Northern Ireland - 1.32
30. Hungary - 1.21
31. Slovenia - 1.16
32. Belgium - 1.15
33. Albania - 1.10
34. Lithuania - 1.05
35. Latvia - 1.05
36. Wales - 1.00
37. Estonia - 0.95
38. Belarus - 0.89
39. Georgia - 0.81
40. Macedonia - 0.81
41. Cyprus - 0.78
42. Armenia - 0.75
43. Iceland - 0.63
44. Liechtenstein - 0.57
45. Moldova - 0.53
46. Azerbaijan - 0.44
47. Malta - 0.44
48. Kazakhstan - 0.36
49. Andorra - 0.24
50. Faroe Islands - 0.05
51. Luxembourg - 0.00
52. San Marino - 0.00
53. Montenegro**** - 0.00
* seeded first automatically for 2008 European Championship as hosts
** seeded first automatically for 2008 European Championship as champions (if they qualify)
*** seeded first automatically for 2010 World Cup Qualifying
**** did not participate in 2006 World Cup qualifying or 2008 European Championship Qualifying
Now that we know there will be 9 groups at the 2010 World Cup Qualifying tournament (and assuming UEFA stick with the same system), it looks like Portugal, Spain and France are in serious danger of being drawn into difficult groups. For the 2008 European Championship it still looks like Germany will get the final seeding (next to Austria, Switzerland and Greece). Mind you, they have a couple of tough games coming up with Ireland away and the Czech Republic at home. Their nearest challengers, Netherlands and Croatia, still have to play away games against Romania and England respectively though... It might all go to the last day.
|
|
Comments (13) :: Post A Comment! :: Permanent Link
|
2007-08-01 - United States versus Iraq?
Here's an interesting thought I just had... Following victories for both the United States and Iraq at their respective continental championships last month, both might do battle (pun intended) against each other at the 2009 Confederations Cup likely to be held in South Africa. That would certainly be as interesting to watch as the 1998 meeting between the US and Iran in France!
|
|
Comments (1) :: Post A Comment! :: Permanent Link
|
2007-06-27 - UEFA Coefficients
The following represent the latest UEFA coefficients following the European Qualifying matches played on 6 June 2007. They will probably used to determine the top four seeds for the Euro 2008 tournament, and the seeding groups for the 2010 World Cup qualification tournament.
1. Germany - 2.71
2. Netherlands - 2.56
3. Croatia - 2.41
4. Sweden - 2.35
5. Portugal - 2.32
6. England - 2.29
7. Italy - 2.29
8. Poland - 2.26
9. France - 2.24
10. Romania - 2.21
11. Czech Republic - 2.16
12. Serbia - 2.12
13. Spain - 2.06
14. Ukraine - 2.06
15. Greece - 2.05
16. Turkey - 2.00
17. Russia - 2.00
18. Israel - 1.94
19. Denmark - 1.83
20. Norway - 1.82
21. Switzerland* - 1.80
22. Ireland - 1.76
23. Bulgaria - 1.76
24. Bosnia and Herzegovina - 1.71
25. Slovakia - 1.68
26. Scotland - 1.65
27. Austria* - 1.50
28. Finland - 1.50
29. Northern Ireland - 1.38
30. Hungary - 1.18
31. Albania - 1.16
32. Belgium - 1.06
33. Latvia - 1.00
34. Lithuania - 1.00
35. Belarus - 1.00
36. Slovenia - 0.94
37. Wales - 0.94
38. Estonia - 0.89
39. Macedonia - 0.84
40. Georgia - 0.80
41. Armenia - 0.74
42. Liechtenstein - 0.63
43. Cyprus - 0.50
44. Iceland - 0.47
45. Azerbaijan - 0.44
46. Moldova - 0.41
47. Malta - 0.41
48. Kazakhstan - 0.35
49. Andorra - 0.26
50. Faroe Islands - 0.06
51. Luxembourg - 0.00
52. San Marino - 0.00
As Austria and Switzerland qualify as hosts (*), they will be automatically seeded for the Euro 2008 tournament. The other seed will be Greece (the reigning champions from 2004), if they qualify of course, so it's likely only one place will be up for grabs for the top team in the list above. If everything follows tradition, the rest of the teams will all be unseeded and could be drawn into any group.
For the 2010 World Cup qualifying campaign, we already know that UEFA decided that there will be nine qualifying groups, so that means teams will be seeded in five groups of nine teams, and one group of eight teams, with one team from each of these seeding groups going into a different group. That means there will be eight groups of six teams, and one group of five teams. If the seedings were to be made now that would mean Germany, Netherlands, Croatia, Sweden, Portugal, England, Italy, Poland and France would head a group each, and Romania, Czech Republic, Serbia, Spain, Ukraine, Greece, Turkey, Russia and Israel would be in the second seeding group, etc. However, a lot can still change. Not one team is yet secure of their place in any seeding group, although for the top teams to drop into the second group of seeds is already somewhere unlikely. The qualifying draw for the World Cup qualifying campaign won't take place until 25 November 2007, so as usual we'll have to wait until a couple of days before that date before we know everything for sure, apart from the groups themselves of course, for which we'll have to wait to the day itself!
|
|
Comments (2) :: Post A Comment! :: Permanent Link
|
2007-06-27 - Altitude Ban PARTIALLY Reversed
How logical is this? Now only FIFA World Cup qualifying matches can't be played above 3000 meters, as opposed to all international matches above 2500 meters. Basically that means you can play everywhere apart from in the Bolivian capital La Paz, which lies at some 3600 meters. Of course it essentially means that all international matches are banned above this level because I don't think Bolivia are going to find many takers for friendly games in their capital.
If you ask me this makes a complete mockery of the original decision and so this decision must also be repealed! How can you first say there's medical evidence and then change that decision? Does that mean they now don't care if players die or what? This is actually more discriminatory than the original decision because Colombia, Peru, Chile and Ecuador can now host high-altitude matches at their venues (or planned venues), but Bolivia can't (at least in their capital). Do FIFA think they can get away with this because they've now only got Bolivia to fight with rather than most of the CONMEBOL nations, and therefore think they have a better chance of success??? I sincerely hope that the other nations don't give up on this now that they've got their way. I find this whole situation most bizarre!
See also: FIFA Bans High Altitude International Matches
|
|
Comments (4) :: Post A Comment! :: Permanent Link
|
2007-06-09 - This is uncanny!
Twice I have written about the 'New Maradona'. Here and here. The most recent article was in fact about a copy of one of Maradona's trademark goal versus England in 1986. This time Messi has done it again! He's managed to copy another one of Maradona's famous goals, the 'hand-of-god' goal scored in that same match in Mexico. He didn't exactly score it from where Maradona was in 86, but the action is pretty much identical. Now this is certainly not the first time Maradona's goal has been emulated, but how often has such a goal stood in much the same way as Maradona's goal did. I can still see the way the England players protested back then, and the way the Espanyol players protested tonight. If Messi was an artist they'd arrest him for forgery! Now I'm no expert on re-incarnation but I had always assumed that the person being re-incarnated would have to be dead before the re-incarnation could be born!!! It's not exactly a goal to celebrate, but it's certainly one to make you wonder!
|
|
Comments (0) :: Post A Comment! :: Permanent Link
|
2007-06-05 - 2008 European Championship Qualifying - Review / Preview
Not much to write home about this weekend. One big surprise on a night on which 21 qualifiers were played.
Group A
As expected there were victories for both Poland and Portugal although neither really had it all their way. Portugal needed a goal late on to see off a Belgium side that will soon become more of a force again with many young players that may well be successful in the Euro U-21 tournament in Holland this month. Poland were behind to Azerbaijan for more than an hour. Serbia also kept in the race with a 0-2 win in Finland. In the other match Armenia got a rare away win (v Kazakhstan 1-2). Poland and Portugal remain favourites to qualify at this stage.
For Poland at least Wednesday's match against Armenia should be more of the same but Armenia will be full of confidence after some good results recently. Besides the win against Kazakhstan, they also only lost 1-0 away to Finland and Poland. Finland v Belgium will be a game for the also-rans with Finland stalling after an impressive start, and Belgium already lagging behind. The final game between Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan is too close to call, but probably home advantage will tell.
Group B
Italy only managing a 1-2 win against the Faroe Islands was the only real surprise in this group, with France prevailing at home to beat a spirited Ukraine, at least until France managed to find the net midway through the second half. Lithuania beat Georgia 1-0 at home. France and Italy remain hot favourites to take the qualifying places.
On Wednesday the three top sides should get three more points each with Scotland away to the Faroe Islands, France at home to Georgia, and Italy away to Lithuania, but it may again be Italy who will struggle most. The World Champions certainly seems to be struggling over the last two years with some unusual results, which is strange given that they managed to win a World Championship in between!
Group C
Although Turkey suffered a bloody nose in Bosnia and Herzegovina (3-2 loss), there's no real change in the group as the strong favourites remain Turkey and Greece. The Greeks saw off the Hungarians 2-0 at home. Norway at least kept in the race with a 4-0 home win against Malta.
With the Turks having a day off on Wednesday, both Norway and Bosnia and Herzegovina could draw level on points, although the Turks would have a game in hand, with home games against Malta and Hungary respectively. Going the other way should be a Greek side that will be five points of their conquerors from only three months ago if they beat Moldova at home.
Group D
Germany continued their excellent form with another drubbing of San Marino, although the score this time was not even half of what it was at the start of the campaign. Obviously with them missing quite a few regulars their game wasn't as clinical as it was then. Ominously though they are still managing some impressive results when they don't have all their players fit. For me they're still carrying the label of Euro 2008 Champions as I can't see anyone stopping them if they have all their players fit (oh boy is that hard to say being a Dutchman!). Wales kept the more and more ordinary-looking Czech side to a 0-0 draw in Cardiff, and were indeed unlucky not to come up trumps in Ryan Giggs' last game (never say never?). The faltering Czechs certainly have brought the improving Irish side back in the running and if the Czechs don't pick it up soon they'll be overrun by the Irish. Having heavily tipped Germany and the Czechs throughout the group's games, I now have to say that the Czechs and Irish are 50-50 for the qualifying place behind the uncatchable Germans, who should give the Slovakians more of the same on Wednesday.
Group E
It was a good night for the teams wanting to leave England behind in the group with Croatia, Israel and Russia all picking up three points. Perhaps an equally worrying prospect for the English is that the Croatians only managed a 0-1 away win away to their opponents on Wednesday. Israel proved they are no one-hit wonders with another impressive 1-2 away win this time against incredibly hard-to-beat Macedonia. Russia, 4-0 winners at home to Andorra, should be more clinical if they are to hold off the English challenge. They really should have scored more goals in a group where goal difference could be crucial. This group remains too close to call. Much as I can't see Israel claiming one of the two places, I really can't write them off either. England's challenge remains a challenge if they keep winning, and Croatia look strong. Russia's fate should be sealed when they meet England home and away later on in the group.
On Wednesday Schitzophrenic England go to Estonia as already mentioned. Which of the two personalities will we see? The "we will beat Brazil" one or the "we are better than our performance showed today"? It really can't be anything else. Either they score a hatful or they lay down as they've done too many times in recent times. Israel should increase their goal difference away to Andorra, but all eyes will be on Zagred when the favourites Croatia hosts Hiddink's Russian revolution. I expect the Croatians to prevail to extend their lead.
Group F
This group remains interesting although Denmark seems to have shot itself in the foot, or rather a single fan is likely to be responsible for eliminating them. They remain an exciting side, but with a penalty being given in the final minute odds were very short that they would have lost the match anyway. Spain managed a creditable 0-2 away win to Latvia to keep up their challenge. In the night's other match, Liechtenstein should be happy to have held Iceland to a 1-1 away draw. Spain have really dug themselves out of a very deep hole and could yet provide the only challenge to Sweden at the top, although Northern Ireland definitely aren't out of it yet and should remain in the race until late on in this group.
On Wednesday Spain, Denmark and Sweden should all gain three points with the Spanish facing Liechtenstein in Vaduz, Denmark facing Latvia away, and the Swedes facing Iceland at home.
Group G
This remains a nail-biting type of group. With Romania and Bulgaria both having faced up to the possible banana-skin away matches against Slovenia and Belarus and likely to do much of the same in the 'return' home matches on Wednesday, it means this group could go right to the wire. With the Netherlands gaining nothing but confidence beating less opponents on their Asian 'holiday', they will likely be under pressure in third place when they host Bulgaria in their next game in September in a match that will likely decide which of the two goes to the finals. They might need more than Ruud van Nistelrooij back in the side to stop thoughts of the nightmare situation of not qualifying from this group.
As already mentioned, Romania should beat Slovenia at home, and Bulgaria should beat Belarus at home on Wednesday to keep the Dutch in the minefield. Albania should be too strong in the other 'return' match played on the night away to Luxembourg.
Overall
Here's how I see the qualifying situation in terms of eventual qualifiers at this stage:
Group A: Poland and Portugal
Group B: France and Italy
Group C: Greece and Turkey
Group D: Germany and Czech Republic
Group E: Croatia and England
Group F: Sweden and Spain
Group G: Romania and Netherlands
If this is the eventual line-up for the finals, it promises to be a real spectacle with no real 'lesser' nations qualfying, and some decent sides missing out, i.e. Bulgaria, Denmark, Serbia, Scotland, Ukraine.
In terms of a winner, as already mentioned, even though the finals are still a year away, for me no one comes close to challenging the Germans at this moment. When I ask myself what they don't have I'm left without answers. Nearest challengers should be (in no alphabetical order): Croatia, England, France, Italy, Netherlands and Portugal although none of those sides are setting the night sky alight at present. Mind you, that didn't stop Italy from winning the World Cup in 2006 now did it! ;-)
|
|
Comments (3) :: Post A Comment! :: Permanent Link
|
|
About Me
This weblog will list the latest interesting issues in international football to do with tournaments and results in general.
Friends
|
